Intel Report 20 Jan

First off, it looks like I was running 24 hours ahead of the news cycle on my last report....again!

Even though the earthquake in Haiti has sucked all the air out of the newsrooms, there have actually been a lot of developments and good articles this week.

Iraq

Two significant items here. There first is that Iraq disqualified 500 political candidates and 15 parties entirely from their upcoming provincial elections. This was done under the legal auspices of preventing former Baathists from coming back into power. However, the panel that made these decisions was handpicked by Prime Minister al-Maliki, and targets Sunnis. Maliki has had long standing ties to unsavory, Iranian backed characters like Muqtada al-Sadr, and turned a blind eye on the Shi’ite death squads that were tearing the country apart prior to the surge. He fought US commanders tooth and nail when they tried to implement strategies to stop the death squads, which ended up ethnically entire sections of the capitol.

http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2010/01/15/iraqs_electoral_commission_bars_500_candidates/?rss_id=Boston.com+--+Latest+news

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/iraq/2010737892_iraq08.html

The decision looks very partisan, even to casual western observers. Among those banned include a former defense minister and a former President (Alawi). The end result is that many Sunnis feel they have been cut out of the political process, and that it makes the government look non-representative and repressive. If Iraq goes up in flames again, historians will look back at this decision as the spark that started the fire.

On a similar note, only 50,000 of the 96,000 Sons of Iraq have been integrated into the government service so far. That leaves almost 50,000 armed former insurgents with a grudge if the political process fails.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100119/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq_32

The U.S. had to lean on al-Maliki HARD to get him to integrate even a fraction of the former insurgents into national service.

Afghanistan

Nothing but bad news out of Afghanistan this week. First off, my prediction that the Taliban will melt away out of Marjah looks to be right. In fact, that was the plan all along, apparently.

“By openly discussing their plans for Marjah, military officials risk the possibility that the Taliban will act contrary to their plans and mount a stiff defense that could swell American casualties. But defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the future military operation, said commanders are banking on the assumption that Taliban foot soldiers may choose to quietly slip back to their civilian lives rather than face vastly superior U.S. forces.”

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/01/13/helmand_town_may_be_first_big_battle_in_bigger_war/?rss_id=Boston.com+--+Latest+news

My best guess is that because McChrystal never really supported the Helmand operations in the first place, he’s mostly looking for a way to get out, claim victory, avoid casualties, and move on to operations he feels more vital. We’ll see if he bother to follow the COIN strategy of “Clear, Hold, Build”, though, since we already did the first part. Problem is, holding requires lots of troops to babysit the locals.

The Taliban is continuing to score big. This week they conducted a series of embarrassing attacks on the capitol (Kabul) while Hamid Karzai was swearing in what little of his cabinet was confirmed by the Assembly.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2010-01-19-afghanistan-security_N.htm?csp=34

At first blush, this attack appears to have been a failure. The militants inflicted light casualties, didn’t achieve any of their tactical goals, and died to a man. Problem is, it was a major strategic victory in the same way the Tet offensive was. It sent the message that the US and the Afghan government can’t protect you. And that is a perception fatal to any COIN operation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/20/world/asia/20kabul.html

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/losing_the_info_war_39kX5JCU6zkaAxMS7vaCKI

Note that the Taliban got their message across loud and clear…and that some of the locals think the US was behind it. This brings me to my next point. Even though the US has worked hard to reduce civilian casualties in Afghanistan (2/3rds of all civilian casualties are now caused by the Taliban) via ever more restrictive rules of engagement, the Taliban is still able to successfully blame the US for casualties, and to stir up riots whenever it’s convenient using fabricated incidents which play upon cultural fears and stereotypes (much the way the Klan did to stir people up against Blacks, Jews, and Catholics once upon a time). The propaganda war for the Taliban is pretty simple if all they have to do is schwack civilians with a hidden bomb, send in a few ringers to claim a US drone did it, and leave.

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/01/15/taliban-cause-most-civilian-deaths-but-u-s-gets-the-blame/

Oh, wait, it gets worse. Only 15% of all Afghani recruits are literate. 21.3% of the Afghan economy (GDP) consists of bribes. $2.5 billion in bribes. To put it in perspective, the opium trade brings in $2.8 billion. As things stand, getting the people to trust the government is a hopeless task.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/Afghanistan/article6990580.ece

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100119/ap_on_re_eu/eu_britain_afghanistan_corruption_report_3

There are also signals that the various players in the DoD, congress, DoS, and White House aren’t all on the same page, and it’s sending a lot of mixed messages. Indeed, Secretary Gates was in India this week reassuring them that the US wouldn’t abruptly leave Afghanistan, despite what VP Biden and Sen. Levin might be saying back home. This lack of cohesion doesn’t help the folks on the ground at all, and strengthens the Taliban. President Obama needs to lay down the law to all the various parties about staying “on message”. He knows how to do it in a campaign, and this isn’t very much different. It’s still a PR campaign with a central message.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus17-2010jan17,0,320817.column

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/20/world/asia/20briefs-India.html?hp&ex=&ei=&partner=

Iran

Iran finally officially announced it was rejecting the SC5+1 proposal. They’re only 3 months late. No one seemed to bat an eyelash.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/iran-snubs-nuclear-fuel-deal-diplomats-19542.html

The G5+1 met at the UN. The US bent over backwards to accommodate Chinese demands in order to make the meeting happen. In response, China snubbed the group and sent a low level functionary at the UN to the meeting, and flatly rejected further sanctions, saying “now is the wrong time”.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9aa27c02-03a1-11df-a601-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1

Still, Western diplomats see some hope in the Chinese phrasing, which leaves open a window that there may be a right time…some time. Western diplomats remind me of nothing so much as a teen-age girls sitting by the phone waiting for her two timing ex-boyfriend to call. There’s probably a lot more productive ways to spend your time.

Still, there is a ray of hope in this. It is possible that a group of countries would be willing to impose sanctions unilaterally, and bypass China. It would hurt Iran, but China is their biggest trading partner (15% of China’s oil comes from Iran). Thus, it seems likely that such non-uniform sanctions would have a very limited effect on Iran (as has been described in previous posts)

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/china-s-move-to-block-new-sanctions-against-iran-could-have-opposite-effect-19531.html

In the better late than never category, US intelligence officials have finally fessed up that the 2007 NIE assessment of Iran (which stated Iran had stopped nuclear work in 2003) was completely wrong.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/19/review-says-iran-never-halted-nuke-work-in-2003/

Score one for intel services…again. Day late and a dollar short as usual. As a result of their collective bungling, their report bolstered the arguments of the doves in Washington, weakened the President and Israel’s positions, and may have bought Iran an extra two years to work on developing thermonuclear weapons. Nicely done. I know they get a lot of things right that we never hear about, but you’d think they’d find a way to get some of their successes out there. Because right now, they haven’t looked good in a long time.

Iran pointed out the obvious this week: they could inflict heavy casualties on the US 5^th Fleet if attacked, either by the US or Israel. This is your usual posturing, and simply serves to remind the US that even if no sanctions can be passed, a military option against Iran isn’t a politically viable one (what happens in the next two elections to the party that was responsible for instigating the worst Naval loss since Pearl Harbor?). Essentially, Iran is rubbing our noses in our own self imposed impotence. The second, underlying intent of this is to get the US to lean even more heavily on Israel to forgo attacking Iran, since we would end up bearing the brunt of their retaliation.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/iran-says-may-hit-western-warships-if-attacked-19534.html

Pakistan

Here’s another sobering look at why Islamic terrorism won’t be going away anytime soon. Basically, even the state funded schools in Pakistan (not just the Madrassas) are a junior jihadist breeding ground.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/16/AR2010011602660.html

This is disturbing, because it indicates the situation in Pakistan is not likely to improve anytime soon, and will remain a haven for terrorist organizations in the foreseeable future. Even worse is the danger that this creates with India. As long as these schools are whipping kids into paranoid frenzies about outsiders trying to destroy Islam, India will be the most convenient target for their delusions. Which brings us to…

India

This week Indian Prime Minister Singh met with SecDef Gates. Among the topics were India’s frustrations with China over China’s repeated hacking attempts on Indian government networks.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/China-tried-to-hack-Indias-computers-Narayanan/articleshow/5473640.cms

Gates also reminded a press meeting that terrorists are trying to provoke a war between Pakistan and India, and that after the Mumbai attacks India may be out of patience.

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/304776,al-qaeda-trying-to-provoke-india-pakistan-conflict-gates-says.html

Given that India is the only regional counterweight to Al-Qaeda and China, wouldn’t it seem prudent to try harder to bring them into our sphere, even if it is at the expense of Pakistan? Frankly, it’s pretty obvious who we want to win that fight.

Israel

Israel is quietly pushing for sanctions, particularly with Germany. Germany has strong economic ties with Iran, and actually has the ability to hurt them financially (at least in the short term until new rat lines are established).

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/iran-signs-1-bln-eur-deal-with-german-firm-report-19535.html

Israel’s being quiet about things at the moment. It is like the old movies though: get worried when it gets TOO quiet. Israel is still pressing people for sanctions, so an attack isn’t imminent. If it goes 2-3 weeks without the Israelis making any attempts to resolve the situation, watch out. It probably means that they’re getting all their political and military ducks in a row before the do whatever it is they’re going to do.

On a side note, Israel is trying to mend ties with Turkey. Diplomatic relations have been declining for a while, highlighted by a particularly nasty slight delivered to the Turkish ambassador to Israel about 3 weeks ago.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-israel-qa19-2010jan19,0,2032883.story?track=rss

Weekly Intel Update (12 JAN 2010)

It’s been a relatively quiet week…but only seemingly. There’s a lot bubbling beneath the surface.

Terrorism

Yemen looks to be an emerging hot spot. More and more of the country is completely lawless, and the government in Sanaa grows weaker and weaker as oil revenues dry up. As a result, no more detainees will be repatriated to Yemen in the foreseeable future.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/6968221/Yemeni-officials-admit-they-are-losing-the-battle-against-al-Qaeda.html

The more unsettling news is that most of the evidence against a detainee at Gitmo, who is now going to get a trial in the U.S., is being thrown out.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100108/ap_on_go_ot/us_guantanamo_detainee

This is a very dangerous precedent. It probably means we won’t get convictions against most of the detainees being moved to Illinois. Keep in mind, al Qaeda’s own version of SERE school teaches them to lie about their treatment, or to exaggerate any grievance to play to Muslim sympathies.

So, what if the Marines who capture a bad guy don’t read him his rights? Properly tag and bag the evidence? Get information without the presence of a lawyer? Use harsh language in front of the detainee?

Score one for the terrorists. However, keep in mind that releasing a bunch of hardened al Qaeda terrorists on the basis of legal technicalities would be a nightmare for the Obama administration. Doing a catch and release with KSM could easily cost him the 2012 election, along with basically any congressman (or woman) not from Massachusetts or the San Francisco Bay area who supported the closure of Gitmo and the use of civilian trials. Even when using a poll deliberately design to skew the results, it still indicates a clear majority of Americans want these guys locked away at Gitmo indefinitely (kind of like how child molesters can be held past the end of their sentences if they are still deemed a threat).

On a lightly lighter note, many of the inmates don’t want to leave Gitmo for Illinois:

“But the final irony is that many of the detainees may not even want to be transferred to Thomson and could conceivably even raise their own legal roadblocks to allow them to stay at Gitmo.

Falkoff notes that many of his clients, while they clearly want to go home, are at least being held under Geneva Convention conditions in Guantánamo. At Thomson, he notes, the plans call for them to be thrown into the equivalent of a "supermax" security prison under near-lockdown conditions.”

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/declassified/archive/2010/01/06/guantanamo-is-not-ever-going-to-be-closed.aspx

Afghanistan

Shortly after last week’s intel update, Maj Gen Flynn, NATO’s top intelligence official, described our intelligence efforts in Afghanistan as “only marginally relevant”. The core of this assessment is that we are focusing on the enemy and completely ignoring the human terrain. This is a classic blunder in COIN operations, and usually is fatal if not corrected. The populace is the lynchpin of any successful COIN strategy. Ignore it, and you lose.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/01/05/nato-official-intelligence-work-falling-short-afghanistan/

Another black eye for the intel community. This comment is the most damning thing I have seen coming from a high level member of the military about his own people.

Also highlighting the inherent advantages the Taliban has is this article:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,582847,00.html

It flat out states in our own COIN manual that the insurgents don’t even need the truth to win. It’s right. The Taliban can make up whatever they want to, and as long as it’s marginally believable it works. This incident got 6 Afghan civilians killed, and that in turn provides even more propaganda fodder for the Taliban to work with.

Rumor has it that Gen McChrystal never understood his predecessor’s move to secure Helmand, and never really supported it. The term “sideshow” has been bandied about.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124986154654218153.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

One way or another, this is going to wrap up eventually.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/military/2010-01-11-Helmand-Taliban_N.htm

One unnamed source described what is coming in the city of Marjah as “The Fallujah of Afghanistan”.

Ummm…is that a good thing? My fearless prediction is that most of the Taliban will manage to slip away ahead of time, and turn the entire episode into a PR victory.

Israel

This Saturday the Administration upped the ante with Israel in it disagreement with them over the issue of settlements, Iran, and the root causes of turmoil in the middle east:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0110/Israel-shrugs-off-Mitchell-s-loan-threat

Essentially, George Mitchell threatened to cut of Israel’s loan guarantees unless it stops building in the West Bank. I goes along with the Administration’s perspective that the root cause of most middle eastern tensions are due to the Palestinian issue. They believe if it is resolved, then things will fall into place afterwards as part of a domino effect. Israel holds most of the trump cards in the negotiations, and the Palestinians don’t have much to offer, so the Administration believes that if something is going to happen, Israel will have to initiate it.

From the Israeli perspective, the Palestinean demands are a no-go, particularly the right of return (which most Israelis believe would be national suicide at best, and a Holocaustian massacre at worst.) The Palestineans haven’t budged on this issue in 20 years, so it’s unlikely to happen now, especially with the US apparently leaning on Israel diplomatically.

http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2010/01/11/netanyahu_blames_palestinians_for_deadlock_in_peace_negotiations/

What Israel chooses to do with this is a matter of conjecture, but from their perspective it seems like bullying. It seems logical that they are preparing themselves to live in a world without any sort of U.S. support, if the worst should come.

On a weirder note, a former Israeli general says that Iran won’t be a nuclear threat for another 7 years or so.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,582696,00.html

This is probably a best case scenario that BG Uzi Eilam is looking at. It also probably assumes that Iran will take the longer, harder road to produce modern, more efficient types of warheads. Neither is necessarily true. If Iran is willing to cut all sort of corners (such as warhead type, and unconventional delivery methods), the traditional Israeli estimate of “possible in a year” remains true.

Iran

An Iranian nuclear physicist was killed by a vehicle borne bomb yesterday.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/allegation-of-us-role-in-iran-bombing-absurd-state-dept-19480.html

http://www.news-gazette.com/news/politics/2010/01/12/bomb_kills_iran_nuclear_physicist_tied_to_mousavi

What makes this interesting is both that he’s a nuclear physicist, but also that he has been a vocal critic of the Iranian regime. According to some reports, he was an academic primarily, and has had no involvement in the Iranian nuclear program. Even more interesting is that there have been a number of airplane crashes in the past that have killed senior Iranian military personnel, scientists, and even foreign advisors. The rumor has long been that Israel has had a hand in these (one of which set back their nuclear program by over a year), but the truth is elusive (and probably highly classified).

I put forth the suggestion that the Iranian government did this to Dr. Mohammadi because they were worried (or believed) he was going to defect and reveal information extremely damaging to their nuclear program. If you remember from a few weeks ago I wrote about a scientist and a General who both apparently defected. By killing him this way it lets them try to shift attention to the US and Israel, and to continue to use these two nations to act as a target for domestic disquiet. No one can argue that both history, and motive suggest either of these two nations could be responsible. It gets rid of a highly visible supporter of Moussavi at an institution which has been fomenting revolution against the regime.

Iran will soon be trying both the Americans and French woman they have accused of spying within the next few weeks. We will just have to see in what manner they try to turn this to their advantage, or what they want as a bargaining chip.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/detained-americans-to-be-tried-soon-iran-spokesman-19478.html

Admiral Mullen basically ruled out the US using military fore against the Iranian nuclear program. Not that Israel held out much hope anyway that we would help them with the problem.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N0575255.htm

China is digging in it’s heels, and sanctions in the first two months of 2010 are very unlikely.

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20100105/tap-oukwd-uk-iran-nuclear-china-03b3b4c.html

General Petraeus says we have a plan for Iran’s nukes. Of course we do. We have a plan for everything. More likely than not, we have a CONPLAN stashed on a shelf somewhere that details what we plan on doing in case Mexico invades Singapore. Based on what we see today, it is a plan that is essentially a containment policy much like the one we have with North Korea. And we all can see that North Korea doesn’t have nuclear weapons now, as well as their movement towards liberal democracy and a greater respect for human rights. I don’t think “containment” is going to hold much water with the Israelis.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/us-has-contingency-plan-for-iran-nukes-top-general-19462.html

I cannot find the reference at the moment, but one insider’s guess is that we will not see sanctions passed in the UN until sometime in June. This sounds about right. If it is the case, we can probably rule out an Israeli strike until after then. Notably, Steve Forbes has predicted an Israeli strike in the Labor Day time frame, which matches up pretty well with the political considerations involved.

Weekly UNclassified Intel Report. Jan. 4

Took a week off for the holidays. Here’s the latest with some commentary. Also included is the best unclassified study I've seen examining (realistically) how Iran getting nuclear weapons will alter the geoploitical picture.

(For the blog the pdf can be found at http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub629.pdf )

The Underwear Bomber

By now, most everyone has heard about the attempt to detonate a PETN bomb on Christmas day on board a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/northwest-airlines-bomb-photos/story?id=9436297

At first, the spin coming from the Department of Homeland Security was one designed to calm fears and reassure the public that things went according to plan.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20091229/D9CT6TE80.html

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9CUEFR80&show_article=1

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/12/31/airplane-bomber.html

The problem is, it didn’t. Here’s a partial list of where things went wrong:

- How did airport security, improved at much cost after the 2001 terrorist attacks, miss the explosives concealed on the bomber's body?

- How did the terrorist watchlist system allow Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab to both keep his American tourist visa and avoid extra flight screening despite his father telling authorities his concerns about the younger man's radicalization?

- Why didn't Abdulmutallab's lack of luggage, and cash purchase for an international flight, raise suspicions?

- Why was the plot thwarted only by an apparent explosive malfunction and fellow passengers' aggressive action?

- How did the suspect leave Yemen with an expired visa?

- Who helped get him on the plane without a visa?

- Why did the FBI insist that only one person was detained for the longest time, then reverse itself (mostly because witnesses saw the whole thing)?

- Why didn’t US intelligence agencies put all the pieces together, despite having intelligence (according to the NY Times) before Christmas that al Qaeda in Yemen was preparing “a Nigerian” for an attack on the west?

Occam’s razor says that these failures stem from simple incompetence; that basically nothing has changed in the intelligence community except that a new level of bureaucracy was created by adding the DHS to the mix. Yes, there haves been a ton of studies, white papers, reorganization, money spent, commissions, etc… since 9/11, but fundamentally the players are still the same.

One startling possibility, though unlikely, is that this was not simple incompetence; it was sabotage. Al Qaeda sympathizers managed to penetrate some US agencies in the 90’s. Could it be that there are people actively trying to prevent US intelligence agencies from achieving effective data dissemination and fusion? Probably not, but the possibility must be investigated.

Side Note: It's only a matter of time before one of these guys actually is able to get their explosives to work properly. Also, full body scanners don't work if the explosives are carried in a bodily orifice like a cocaine mule.

Also, it's interesting that al Qaeda keeps going after airliners. They're much harder targets than say, elementary schools. Perhaps al Qaeda is trying to prove a point: no matter how good your security, we can get through. But, following that line of thought, wouldn't taking down someone protected by the Secret Service get that message across even more effectively?

Afghanistan

The Taliban scored several successes in the information operations campaign against the coalition in the past two weeks. The first came before Christmas when a member of the Afghan national Army attacked and killed coalition troops.

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/afp/20091229/twl-afghanistan-unrest-italy-us-shooting-7e07afd.html

In November, another Afghani policeman attacked and killed five British soldiers on base.

http://www.news24.com/Content/World/News/1073/268f0cec8bc14f65a952dfd53a82a5ba/31-12-2009-06-08/Taliban_beheads_six_spies

The Taliban have the ability to terrorize the population, and that’s an extremely effective motivator. Right now, given how much of the police force is infiltrated by the Taliban, I doubt we can effectively convey a message that the police and Army can protect the population from the Taliban.

The biggest setback was the attack via a suicide bomber inside a US base that killed 8 members of the CIA and 4 Canadians.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091231/ts_nm/us_afghan_violence

This is probably the biggest PR coup for the Taliban. It hit at the CIA, and the civilian workers. It was inside the base. It plays to both American and local audiences. The US is the lynchpin of the whole thing: if we waver, then the whole coalition comes apart. Public support for engagement is our critical vulnerability, and spectacular attacks like this are effective at undermining it.

The Taliban is winning the information operations portion of the war decisively at the moment, and both sides know it.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/81358.html

Iran

Iran’s leadership seems to have resigned itself to expecting a Tiananmen Square style massacre sooner or later.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/iran-cleric-demands-force-against-rioters-19408.html

If not Tiananmen style, these statements indicate that mass executions of those arrested will be forthcoming (probably by hanging). It is my opinion that a simple massacre would be more effective at crushing the reform movement. If no one has any idea how many people died, the government can spin what happened any way they want, and use the ambiguity in the casualty figures to their own advantage. Note how much momentum the Democracy movement in China has had since 1989…..

Iran has give the West its own deadline for accepting or rejecting its counter proposal to the Uranium swap deal.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9CVO0NO0&show_article=1

France has already rejected this counter proposal out of hand.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/france-rejects-irans-nuclear-counter-proposal-19419.html

The next step is sanctions. This will not happen until France holds the rotating monthly presidency of the UN security council starting in Feb 2010, Getting anything done in March will be difficult with Russia holding the seat. However, it must be noted Iran has been extremely effective at working around sanctions in the past.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/chinese-evade-u.s.-sanctions-on-iran-19418.html

http://newsmax.com/Newsfront/iran-north-korea-weapons/2009/12/22/id/344346

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2009/01/10/2009-01-10_ten_of_the_worlds_top_banks_accused_of_l-2.html

All in all, I don’t believe sanctions will have much effect on Iran, and what sanctions are put in place won’t hit them where it hurts: oil exports. I also strongly suspect that Israel is thinking along the same lines.

Last (but not least): Israel ran a war game with several scenarios for taking down Irans nuclear facilities using (generally) conventional weapons (the unconventional component was special forces, not Nuclear / Radiological /Chemical / Biological (NRBC)). It also simulated the geo-political outcomes of such attacks. The bad news was that Israel lost them all.

http://www.thetotalcollapse.com/iran-winner-in-israeli-simulated-war-games/

A really interesting exercise, but it assumes that Israel will not attack using any of the more extreme measures available to it that would be aimed at collapsing Iran as a nation / state. Basically, this war game indicates that Israel has only two realistic choices:

1. 1. Accept that Iran will become a nuclear power.

2. 2. Use of disproportionate military force against non-military targets.

Neither is particularly appealing. One stakes the fate of half the world’s remaining Jews on the hope that Iran won’t actually use nuclear weapons or give them to terrorist entities like Hamas and Hizbollah. The other one leaves Israel hoping that their attack both succeeds, and that the world won’t lash out at Israel for its actions. Given the blasé attitude of Europeans towards taking decisive steps, the US public support of Israel, and China and Russia’s inability to project power as far as Israel, it seems doubtful that Israel would suffer much more diplomatically with a massive attack than with a conventional one.

It should be noted that Vice President Biden told the Israeli military establishment (behind closed doors) that they had better just get used to the idea of a nuclear Iran way back in 2005. It's fair to say Israel believes that the US doesn't believe its own rhetoric about letting sanctions work.

Dec 24

This post is a bit different, I'm including some responses that were very insightful, I blocked out the e-mail addresses involved, but there's good insight in the discussion.

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I read today that the White House "Christmas Tree", if it can eve be considered that anymore, has ornaments that feature likenesses of Mao Zedong and other unsavory characters. At this point, we seem to be able to trust in our military field commanders and let's hope the cancer of indecision does not strike from the top down.




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Back when we were in college and took Naval tactics, do you remember that they taught the fundamental principles of warfare as mass, maneuver, objective, offensive, surprise, simplicity, unity of command, etc...? One item that I believed at the time that should have been there was "will". If you lack the will to fight on terms that favor you, you will fight on terms that favor your opponent. If you lack the will to use surprise, you will not have the element of surprise on your side. In an ongoing fight, Major Artelli, (USAF) showed in his dissertation that in democracies the public support for a war follows a very mathematically well defined pattern over time in conjunction with a few other variables (less than 5).

Today, ADM Mullen stated that the military option vs... Iran must be a last resort, and that it would only set them back temporarily. This is an out and out statement of our lack of will to use military force, and even more importantly, to consider "outside the box" military options. ADM Mullen is absolutely correct. Going after the Iranian facilities we know about with a conventional air strike using the munitions we have today will only set them back temporarily. But, there are so many other ways to cripple Iran that we are not considering because we lack the will to commit ourselves to an actual war where we ruthlessly exploit our own advantages until the Iranian government collapses. For example:

1. Knock out the Kharg Island oil terminal with air strikes.
2. Take out Iranian dams, leaving the country with greatly reduced access to fresh water, and well as causing massive infrastructure damage.
3. Nuclear EMP. Drastic, but it would send a very final message. When we say stop, we mean stop.
4. Blockade the Strait of Hormuz and stop any Iranian oil from leaving the Arabian Gulf.
5. Put a dozen JDAMS delivered via B-2 right in the middle of the next meeting of the Guardian Council. Instant decapitation of the Iranian government. Sit back, make some popcorn, and watch the revolution on CNN.

All of these options would have serious economic consequences, and would probably cost the President a second term. It would also destroy any warm fuzzy feelings the world feels towards President Obama.

http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2009/12/ap_mullen_iran_122109/

Where we stand now is with a policy of hope: we hope the Iranian government isn't really trying to build a nuclear weapon, we hope they aren't crazy enough to use it, we hope we can keep the Israelis in check, we hope the Israelis don't damage the Iranian oil infrastructure if they do go after the Iranians, we hope that in the aftermath of an Israeli strike the Iranians don't choose to launch a mass suicide attack on US naval forces in the Gulf (which would probably result in the US 5th Fleet taking extremely heavy casualties, on the order of Pearl Harbor), we hope that the Iranians won't retaliate by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, and we hope that Iran won't go after lightly armed US forces in western Afghanistan. The Obama administration has placed all its chips on one scenario: we get some sanctions through the UN or the sake of appearances after January 1st 2010, and that those appearances of doing something, plus a lot of leaning on Netanyahu, is enough to keep Israel in check.

That's a lot of hoping in my book. For the electrical engineers out there, it's a series circuit, for the statisticians, it's a series of Boolean AND statements. Either way, a single point of failure in their logic results in collapse of the hoped for chain of events. My money is most certainly not on the events developing the way the administration hopes they will. It's just too improbable that they can get Israel to accept a nuclear armed Iran as status quo, particularly the hawkish Netanyahu government.


************************

You could flesh this out academically better than I could, but the fundamental issue here is our deteriorating credibility on the issue of deterrence. We've kept a lot of bad guys in balance because no one wanted to go first in getting their country turned into a smoking black hole. Now that we've spent a ton of time showing the world that political infighting in our Congress is of greater national importance than turning bad guys who get out of line into smoking black holes, the cracks developing badly. We've committed 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. If we can find Bin Laden, it would be a huge victory. I read yesterday that ADM Mullen has commented on our assistance with military efforts in Yemen. Action everywhere with meaningful results nowhere is not the way to gain momentum.




_____

**********************************************

Most everything that has been happening are issues with Iran. There’s a lot happening there.



Nuclear Triggers



First, it looks like Iran didn’t really give up on building a nuclear weapon in 2003 like the National Intelligence Estimate said in 2008.



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6955351.ece

http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf





More likely than not, Iran halted its nuclear program in 2003 (briefly) after it saw what happened to Iraq in the name of countering WMD proliferation in order to avoid providing a causus belli. After Iran realized that we had our hands full in Iraq and were too distracted and overwhelmed to have the 1st Armored Division make a left at Baghdad, they probably resumed their work. Israel, and a couple of European spy agencies have been trying to tell us this for years, but the NIE was published anyway. It seemed odd at the time, and one has to wonder what political underpinnings caused so many agencies to sign off on a document that got it so wrong.



Note that the type of detonator they are attempting to make is used in thermonuclear weapons (aka the H-Bomb, fission trigger / fusion reaction weapon), which have a much higher explosive yield than a simple fission device.



Of course, Iran denies everything



http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=2868077&page=1



If true (and it likely is), this information is two years old and it seems highly likely Iran has made significance along the road towards making nuclear detonators. At this point, all they lack is the super highly enriched Uranium (90%+ U235). They do have enough low enriched uranium now to produce enough upgrade their current stock to make enough fissile material.





Iranian Scientist Disappears (Defects?)



It was revealed this week that in June a senior Iranian nuclear scientist disappeared while on pilgrimage to Mecca. There are stong suspicions he defected, and has been providing secrets about the program, possibly the location of the new, secret underground processing plant revealed a few months ago in September.



http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/091007/world/ml_iran_nuclear_scientist



It wouldn’t be the first time a high ranking member of the Iranian hierarchy has defected. It happened with a senior member of the Revolutionary Guard in 2007.



http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/iranian-general-seeking-asylum-in-us/story-e6frg8yo-1111113117142





Iran Tests New Solid Fuel Medium Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM)



Last week, Iran test fired a new generation of Medium Range Ballistic Missile.



http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/iran-test-fires-sejil-missile-state-tv-19288.html



This is a solid fuel upgrade over earlier liquid fueled Shahab-3 missiles (a Iranian produced clone of the extremely unreliable North Korean Nodong series). Not that the Iranians are bragging in the article that the missile cannot be intercepted. There is a great deal of debate in the defense world about how well ANY current generation Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) can handle countermeasures, such as decoys released by the, or random maneuvering (jinking) by the warhead. This statement by Iran is clearly aimed at Israel and its Arrow ABM system.



The questions people need to think about this in the wake of Iran’s announcement are:

1. Does Israel’s leadership believe the Sejjil-2 really does have countermeasures of some sort

2. Do they believe those countermeasures will significantly reduce the effectiveness of their Arrow missile system

3. How much uncertainty regarding the answers to questions 1 and 2 are they willing to live with?



Illegal Arms Shipment from North Korea Intercepted



Sources now say that the munitions from North Korea intercepted in Thailand were bound for Iran. This is unsurprising, since these two nations are both cut off from selling arms internationally by UN sanctions. They have been doing a brisk business between each other with both finished products and sharing expertise.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/14/thailand-impounds-plane-arms-korea





China Puts Talks on Hold Indefinitely



China has postponed negotiations regarding Iran indefinitely.



http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/officials-world-power-meeting-on-iran-canceled-19279.html



This is most likely due to China’s unhappiness with the US intransigence at Copenhagen. The US has been insisting that if CO2 is going to be limited in some way, China will have to agree to allow internal monitoring by an international agency for compliance verification. China has consistently balked at this, and has felt sighted. Oddly enough, President Obama has been positively Reagan-esque in his adherence to the idea of “trust, but verify”. China has resorted to series of diplomatic tit-for-tats.



http://article.wn.com/view/2009/12/18/Breaking_news_India_China_walk_out_of_climate_summit_Report/





Senior Iranian Cleric Ayatollah Montazeri Dies



http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,580731,00.html



Montazeri was one of the only high level officials supportive of the student movement in Iran. He was the most Senior member of the Guardian Council, and one of the most respected. Without the aid of his gravitas, the students have lost any potential political top cover. It makes it much more difficult for a “velvet revolution” to take place, since there are very few important people left who are willing to support the protestors. Former President Rafsanjani is one of those, but he lacks the spiritual clout that Montazeri did. Being an Islamic Republic, only members of the Guardian Council (who are all very senior Shiite Clerics) have the pull to define something as just or conversely, un-Islamic.



This is almost a death-blow to the dreams of leaders in the West who have been secretly hoping that a Ukrainian-style revolution would take place, allowing for real negotiations with a more moderated Iran to take place. If there is change now, it is likely to look a lot more like a very messy civil war. This seems unlikely in the absence of outside influences, though. The very safe money is on the status quo remaining in place indefinitely as long as the regime is left to its own devices. Cuba and North Korea are great examples of how bad governments can stay in play perpetually.

Nov. 24

Busy week folks, I’ve been pretty tied up with work and pulling my hair out over the reserves. More to come on that after this weekend.



AFGHANISTAN



Not a lot new on the Afghanistan front. Aside from the irony of accepting the Nobel Prize while explaining escalating a current war, not a lot new has come out. The preliminary assertion that we would pull out starting in 2011 and finish in 2013 has been muddied several time with follow up pseudo-clarifications that “the withdrawal is based on conditions on the ground”, and that it will be gradual.



http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-fg-gates-afghanistan7-2009dec07,0,5275244.story



It will be interesting in a few years to see who wins the next round of debates over force levels in Afghanistan. There are enormous hurdles to achieving success in Afghanistan. The biggest one I have seen recently is that Taliban foot soldiers are better paid than Afghani police and Army troops, due to the massive influx of opium related funds to the Taliban, according to Gen McChrystal in his testimony to Congress this week. Additionally, the Army and police recruits we are dealing with are corrupt, drug addicted, unreliable, illiterate, and poorly trained. At least the Taliban prohibits its people from using drugs.



http://afghanistan.blogs.cnn.com/2009/12/09/taliban-pay-vs-afghan-forces-pay/

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,579986,00.html



It is not often you see a good Red Cell style article in public. This one caught my eye this week as being an excellent think piece on what the Taliban’s next few moves will be, and how their strategy should evolve in the face of recent developments. The author is well versed in the culture, but does seem to have an axe to grind.



http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2009/12/08/walid-phares-taliban-afghanistan-obama-al-qaeda/



We should hope our CENTCOM information operations campaign analysts are reading this. What we do should be designed to directly counter this line of attack if we are to have any chance of success.



Another notable development was Amb. Eikenberry and Gen McChrystal appearing before Congress and expressing their unity and friendship.



http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN08191123._CH_.2420



Given what happened with McChrystal’s request earlier this year, and given Sen. McCain’s public concerns over the issue of the unity of DoD and DoS efforts in Afghanistan, it seems likely that both the Ambassador and the General were told to bury the hatchet, at the very least publicly. Gen. McChrystal is already in the hot seat for causing discomfort to the administration of his leaked report and comments about the state of the war.





IRAN



The Situation in Iran has been heating up in the last few days. The U.S. and our NATO allies in the UN (UK, France, and Germany) have become increasingly frustrated with Iran and are now promising “further sanctions.” Russia and China are, of course, not so hot on the idea and are asking for more time for existing sanctions to work. Given Iran’s flaunting of existing sanctions, one should be suspicious of the effectiveness of any sanctions, regardless of severity. Note the recent illegal arms shipments to Hezbollah in the second article, in violation of UN sanctions.



http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/091210/world/iran_nuclear_51

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/12/10/iran.nuclear/index.html



SecDef Gates acknowledged the military option, but reflected current thinking that conventional strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities would only set them back 2-3 years. Thus, he supports further sanctions. This is the conventional wisdom in most military circles, and does not represent any sort of outside the box thinking.



http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/12/11/gates-predicts-significant-sanctions-iran/?test=latestnews



Current thinking is correct, if only in a vacuum. The social situation in Iran is taking a distinct turn for the worse.



http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/in-iran-protests-gaining-a-radical-tinge-19252.html



The students are a large portion of the population. They’re also mostly military aged males. They’re at the point where many are demanding revolution, not reform. The Basiji are typically undereducated and lower class. Basically, if you’re big, dumb, fanatically religious, unemployed, and like to hit people with heavy objects, the Basiji always has an opening for you. Needless to say, the students aren’t particularly thrilled that their knuckle dragging countrymen get to call the shots, and are in fact systematically beating, torturing, raping, and killing protestors. The only thing propping up the regime in Iran it the moment is the Revolutionary Guard and the Basiji. However, given how the balance of power stands now, they are an insurmountable obstacle.



Given the Iranian economy’s reliance on oil, the regular military’s dislike of the Revolutionary Guard, and the Basiji being a dumping ground for chronically unemployed men, there is the very real possibility that a strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure would set off a brutal civil war. Much of the Basiji would likely melt away as their pay either evaporated or became worthless due to hyperinflation (if the government chose to print money to make payroll). Students would rise up. The revolutionary guard would be called in. The regular military, so long shunted aside in favor of their radical countrymen, might choose this moment to side with the students and attempt to prevent a massacre.



Seem unrealistic? This is basically how the Romanian regime fell in 1989. Except, in Iran’s case, security forces might choose to fight rather than step aside at the last minute. If a civil war erupts in Iran, the nuclear program is likely to be set back much more than 2-3 years. It could be decades. Additionally, if a softer revolution occurs (like that of Romania) with a new government in place, Iran might be willing to accept a deal for nuclear power much like the one recently rejected by Khameini and Ahmadinejad.

Sept 29

Couple of news items I wanted to comment on briefly.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/09/29/send-home-thousands-troops-iraq/

Things in Iraq are quiet...but not because everything is hunky-dory. U.S. troops are trapped on base outside of cities and are not allowed to go off base unless given specific permission by the Iraqi government. The Iraqis rarely call upon our troops. This may be a matter of pride, or it may also be a continuation of their habit of trying to hide their paramilitary misdeeds (the Maliki government tried to hide what his Shiite death squads were doing during the height of the insurgency, and resisted the idea of embedding US troops with Iraqi units because of this.)

Talking to folks coming back, the troops are bored...bored...bored. You can only clean your rifle and PT so many times a day. People are finishing master's degrees online, or becoming glowing Gods of Guitar Hero if they're less academically motivated. 9 out of 10 aircraft suffering damage in CENTCOM are picking it up in Afghanistan. The draw down is going to accelerate, I suspect. We're already pulling 1 of the 3 reservists from my unit this winter.

..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/29/world/middleeast/29nuke.html?em

This one dances around the issue a bit, and it is the NY Times. There are so many ways U.S. intelligence could be wrong, and so many ways the the Iranians could have to speed up the process if they are willing to cut corners. Suppose the Iranians stopped their research on a conventional (spherical implosion type) nuclear weapon, and went ahead and built a quick and dirty gun-type device (like was used on Hiroshima?) The latter is bulky, hard to deploy, but it can be made from readily available materials and is extremely reliable (the U.S. never tested on before we used it in combat, so sure were we that it would work.) They also can be built clandestinely, as Pakistan did with theirs (that's how they surprised us with a nuclear test, we thought they we years away because we assumed they would build a more modern device, and the materials used to build the Pakistani device slipped beneath our "radar"). This short cut would save them years.

Some military analysts would point out that a gun-type weapon is far too heavy to put on top of a small ballistic missile like the Shahab-3. True. But the Israelis also have the best developed and most densely layered Anti-Ballistic Missile defense shield in the world in the form of the superlative Arrow missile system. Why would the Iranians (or anyone else for that matter) attack Israel in a way they fully expect, and have prepared for? It's like France expecting the Germans to go right at the Maginot line instead of going around it. Except, these are the Israelis and the Iranians. There are so many ways to deploy a large nuclear weapon that don't involve a ballistic missile. How about in the cargo hold of an airliner? By small boat or mini-submersible, the way drug runners do? By tunnel? The Israelis have pondered most of them already.

So, when you see forecasts about the timeline for Iranian nuclear weapon deployment, take it with a large dose of salt. Based on the CIA's track record, our desire to talk the Israelis out of doing anything, nature of the situation, the Israelis are probably much closer to the mark.

.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

When South Park came up with the idea of a "Snuke" a couple of seasons ago, it seemed like nothing more than their typical brand of gross out humor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Snuke

Well, it isn't so far fetched anymore now that it's actually been done via a "mini man-Snuke"

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/09/28/eveningnews/main5347847.shtml

"This is the nightmare scenario," said Chris Yates, an aviation security consultant.

On a plane at altitude, the effects of such a bomb could be catastrophic. And there is no current security system that could stop it.

"Absolutely nothing other than to require people to strip naked at the airport," said Yates.

And al Qaeda says it will share its new technique via the Internet very soon. There is nothing that can stop that either.

On one hand, this is really bad. Al Qaeda has been obsessed with bombing airplanes for a long time now, with plots from 1998 til present all targeting them. Problem was, we got way ahead of them on the tech curve, and their attempts have failed more and more miserably. (See Reid, Richard for details). This gives them an edge. Can you imagine what the ACLU will do the first time some Arab gets a full body cavity search by airport security without a bomb actually being found? Best guess is the dude will end up owning LAX.

On the other hand, its the explosives, stupid. Most of your readily available and producible explosives (model rocket fuel, black powder, etc) does not burn violently enough to do any real damage, besides killing the would be martyr with internal burns, hemorrhaging, and a case of flatulence even beano couldn't cure. The stuff you would need, like PETN, RDX, or C-4, is very hard to come by, or the manufacture of it is difficult and dangerous. This is something you average home grown wanna-be jihadist will fail miserably at. Thus, I believe it is much more likely that the first time this is employed the airliner will be coming out of a place where such materials are much more readily available, towards the U.S., perhaps a traveler from Turkey to Heathrow to NY, or Indonesia to Hawaii.

Nov 5

Whew! Busy few weeks finishing up two projects and attending a funeral. Sorry for the delay, but interesting things have been shaking out in the past week, primarily in Iran and Afghanistan.



First, on the Iranian fron, they got caught red handed supplying massive amounts of aid to terrorist organizations again.



http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1256799087344&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull



The practical upshot of this is its effect on moderate Israeli leaders. Some fence sitters on whether or not Israel should schwack Iran believe Iran wouldn't be foolish enough to give Hezbollah or Hamas WMD. Catching Iran shipping this much advanced weaponry is apretty effective counter argument to the dove-ish position within the Knesset and Netanyahu's cabinet that Israel will just have to learn to live with a nuclear armed Iran. It will also probably swing some of Netanyahu's cabinet who favored limited strikes towards supporting broader, more crippling strikes design to cause economic collapse and regime change.



At the negotiating table, Iran did basically what I thought they would do: they made a counterproposal which was completely unacceptable.



http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/analysis-iran-in-no-hurry-to-cut-nuclear-deal-18981.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091102/ts_nm/us_iran_nuclear_6



At the same time, Iranian leadership has been taking a hard line stance.



http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/04/world/middleeast/04iran.html



At this point, I would put the odds of a deal happening as just about zero. Iran was angling to ship small amounts, and then stop after a few shipments and ask for renegotiation. Now they are just stalling for time as they try to keep thhe negotiations open. Additionally, don't pay attention to what their diplomats say at this point. They are mid-level functionaries hand picked by Amadhinejad (he purged the Iranian Foreign ministry after he took office in 2005), so I do not believe that there is a shred of difference between their own views and what is coming out of Teheran.



As a side note, they don't want sanctions because they are a hassle, but they also believe any actions taken by the rest of the world will have a negligible impact on Iran (in other words, they believe their position is so strong and the west so weak that they can shrug off anything we can realistically do to them diplomatically).



http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/ahmadinejad-irans-enemies-a-mosquito-18977.html



Iran's leadership is going full blown North Korea / Stalinist state. The Revolutionary Guard has taken over most electronic media in Iran, and are making it well know those who step out of line will be in deep trouble.



http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/revolutionary-guards-extend-reach-to-irans-media-18999.html



Additionally, Imams and Revolutionary Guard minders will henceforth be posted in every classroom to ensure that no Western ideas are being imparted to children...ever.



http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/iran-to-appoint-clerics-in-all-schools-report-18978.html



This is going to play out badly initially for the regime. Iranians are not like North Koreans. They have a very porous border with Iraq, Pakistan, and Turkey, all of which have access to world media. Details will leak out and in.



The Imams in classrooms is the more unnerving of the two. Iranians are actually very well educated comparatively, with women having a 95%+ literacy rate. China has already demonstrated it is possible to produce lots of highly educated AND indoctrinated people who question absolutely nothing regarding the world around them. There's a great quote out there, that a repressive government doesn't tell people what to think, it shapes how they think. In the long run, this approach to creating thought police will be ultimately more effective than simple control of all media within Iran.



By now, most people have seen that Karzai's challenger (Abdullah Abdullah) dropped out a few days ago. This is good in the short run, very bad in the long run. Afghanistan and the allies were very poorly equipped to run another election, particularly with the Taliban controlling vast swathes of the landscape. We would have lost a lot of people for a very low voter turnout which would not have doused questions regarding the legitimacy of the Afghan central government. Unfortunately, this result even further de-legitimizes the Government of Afghanistan and makes our job of waging a successfull counter-insurgency even more difficult. The ultimate goal of COIN (counter-insurgency) is to put in place a legitimate, stable central government by getting the populace to "buy into" it. Getting people to put their faith in a clearly corrupt and illegitimate organization is a tough sell to begin with. Add in Taliban fanatics who torture to death anyone who participates in the process or appears to be even remotely sympathetic to the government, and I don't think you'll find many takers.