Intel Update for 16 March 2010

Time marches on, and there's been some interesting movements here.

Iran

Iran briefly moved its uranium supplies above ground, and then right back into the Natanz facility. There was some speculation that this was to tempt Israel into making a move, but more likely it was purely for logistical reasons.

http://article.wn.com/view/2010/03/01/Iran_moves_enriched_uranium_stock_back_underground_r/

China is now officially Iran's largest trading partner.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100315/wl_mideast_afp/iranchinanuclearpoliticseconomy

This probably has a lot to do with how China reacted to the visit from prominent Israeli economist Stanley Fischer last month. More on that later.

Sanctions on Iran will likely not be voted on by the UN until June. If China refuses to go along with them, it is likely the European Union will impose them unilaterally.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/u.n.-iran-sanctions-may-take-until-june-kouchner-19908.html

Given the apparent Israeli position of waiting this out, this delay won't have much effect. However, it does complicate the picture diplomatically for Israel if most countries have sanctions on Iran, but the most important one (China) does not...

In the "Gee, why are they bothering going through the motions." category, I dug up this old quote by Joe Biden from 2008 where he states that he doesn't believe sanctions will work.

http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=68135&sectionid=351020104

In the "As if he couldn't get any more annoying" category, President Amadhinejad called 9/11 a big lie, adding "truther" to "Holocaust denier" on his resume.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100306/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran

People often ask why it's ok for Israel to have nukes, but for Iran not to. See evidence above, that Iran is NOT controlled by rational individuals making decisions based on a commonly perceived reality. World leaders don't spend nights awake worrying that Israel will obliterate a neighbor with nukes, since they have had them for 40+ years in all likelihood, and if the Yom Kippur War wasn't enough to trigger it, not much will. Iran? People wonder if they would use them at random based on some cleric thinking Allah told him to.

Recently, General Petraeus submitted written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Comittee which alleges Iran is harboring Al Qaeda elements and sponsoring terrorism. He also suggests that intelligence indicates Iran has encountered difficulties in building a nuclear weapon and that their schedule has slid to the right. Additionally, he believes a resumption of serious peace talks by Israel would undercut many of Iran's positions.

http://www.jta.org/news/article/2010/03/17/1011164/petraeus-peace-could-undercut-iran-threat

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/world/middleeast/17military.html

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-17/petraeus-says-u-s-doesn-t-see-inevitable-iran-bomb-update1-.html

Honestly, 18 months is probably the shortest timetable possible right now for Iran to develop a viable nuclear weapon.

China

China has received pressure from the UAE, Saudia Arabia, and the UK regarding sanctions on Iran recently. The UK is confident that China will not stand alone against the world. While admitting that Iran is a serious problem, China's official policy continues to be that diplomacy is the only appropriate avenue.

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/britain-says-china-wont-risk-isolation-over-iran-19894.html

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/china-knows-its-duties-in-iran-nuclear-tussle-saudi-19909.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62F2WK20100316

Additionally, a few weeks back Israel sent one of its top economists (Stanley Fischer) to try to convince China that sanctions on Iran wouldn't damage the Chinese economy. He failed to make any headway, and shortly after he left China publicly re-iterated its position that sanctions were off the table.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100224/wl_nm/us_israel_china_iran

China's decisions always revolve around maximizing their own economic interests. Very rarely do they take a stand on principle. Simply put, Israel doesn't have monetary leverage to get China to act on Iran. Perhaps other countries do...

Afghanistan

There are conflicting reports about the Afghani government's reaction to the capture of Mullah Baradar (the #2 Taliban of Afghanistan) in Pakistan with the help of US intelligence.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,589405,00.html?test=latestnews

Karzai's office denies these reports.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62F2C020100316

I tend to discount the denial, since reconciliation with the Taliban has been the cornerstone of Karzai's plan for how to bring the civil war in Afghanistan to a close. Remember that Karzai was not a big proponent of the surge, since he favored a negotiated political solution to the situation.

Department of state workers in Afghanistan are extremely unhappy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/10/AR2010031003975.html

So, 80 hours weeks, 1 year tours, not enough people to do all the things they are supposed to do, and crappy to non-existent turnovers from their predecessors. Sound like what pretty much every Marine in the region puts up with too, except they get shot at a lot more, but don't get paid as much and whine less.

Terrorism

CIA director Leon Panetta told the media Wednesday that U.S. airstrikes have al Qaeda on the run.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/03/17/official-al-qaeda-leader-played-role-cia-bombing-killed/

Given the number of high ranking members killed, and the capture of the cave complex described in a link in the last blog, what Panetta says does not appear to be hyperbole, although it should be noted this blog hinted at the same 2 weeks ago...

Israel

Vice President Biden's visit to Israel last week turned into a diplomatic disaster. While visiting, one of Netanyahu's cabinet members announced the new construction of 1600 housing units in east Jerusalem. Netanyahu presented Biden with a broken gift at a state dinner. Perhaps it was payback for Biden's insistence that Israel should just learn to live with a nuclear Iran back in 2008.

http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=68135&sectionid=351020104

After Biden's return to the US, the DoS responded harshly, calling the move insulting. Some commentators described US - Israeli relations as the lowest in 35 years. Israel has apologized, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised to investigate the timing of this announcement.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100313/wl_afp/mideastconflictisraelusprobe

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1257887/U-S-fury-Hillary-Clinton-accuses-Israel-insulting-Joe-Biden-visit.html

Given that the settlement announcement was made by an ultra-right cabinet minister, it seems possible this was done by a rogue cabinet member wanting to take a swipe at Biden and the Obama administration.

There has been some speculation that the Obama administration has been trying to create regime change in Israel.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hfN-O_PsuDUAvRqVJauM5zDQhY9w

It would not be the first time the US has worked to effect regime change in Israel. In 1999 President Clinton gave permission to James Carville to take some time off as a political advisor to his administration to be a political consultant for Labor Party Leader Ehud Barak during his 1999 campaign, in the Labor Party's efforts to unseat then Prime Minister Bejamin Netanyahu (who was not well liked by the Clinton administration either). Barak did eventually win, but this was not enough to help President Clinton push through the peace process. Yassir Arafat dug in his heels, wouldn't make concessions, and the Camp David accords of 2000 fell apart, leaving President Clinton furious at the Palestinian negotiators.