Weekly Intel Update for 27 JAN 2010

Things are relatively quiet here now. No earth shattering revelations, just events carrying us inexorably downstream.

Iran

The Iranian regime is stepping up its executions of dissidents. I strongly suspect the plan is to try to intimidate the movement into going underground, and if that doesn’t work, a Tianemen style massacre will work just as well. However, keep in mind that if Iran does this, the week following the event becomes the most politically advantageous time for Israel to take as hard a swing as they feel like at Iran. After massacring thousands of their own people in Iran, and facing intense international condemnation, how many nations are going to come rushing to the Iranian governments defense later in the same week? Given how cocky and arrogant their government has become, it is my guess it is possible the Iranians have not considered this possibility, or dismissed it out of hand

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/human-rights/iranian-cleric-more-opposition-should-be-executed-19587.html

Russia’s minister of arms exports sees no reason why it’s sale of S-300 surface to air missiles shouldn’t go through.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/29/arms-trader-sees-no-threat-in-possible-sale-to-ira/

Once Iran gets these missiles, a conventional strike by traditional (non-stealth) aircraft becomes very difficult to accomplish. The S-300 is nasty. Basically, anything not stealthy is going to have a heck of time getting past it.

US congress is contemplating more sanctions on Iran. However, given the severity of our own sanctions already in place it’s doubtful that the new ones proposed with have any actual bite. It mostly targets companies which do business with the revolutionary guard, and companies that provide refined petroleum products to Iran. (Despite its oil wealth, Iran only refines a minority of the gasoline and diesel it uses)

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/us-senate-votes-to-slap-new-sanctions-on-iran-19591.html

The sanctions also repeal a Clinton era exemption for carpets, caviar, and pistachios. Guess I was smart to trade that Renault for a rug back in 2005.

With France in control of the rotating UN Security Council chair starting February 1^st, the west is gearing up to try and get sanctions through, or at least get the process started and lining their ducks up to put pressure on China. No signs yet of China backing down or deciding the time is right.

Iraq

A series of suicide bombs went off in Baghdad at several hotels frequented by westerners this week, killing 36 and wounding over 100.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/25/AR2010012500599.html

Also, member of AQI continue to be picked off.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/28/AR2010012801191.html

As a whole, AQI has been weakened. However, they still remain very capable of carrying out attacks which carry strong psychological messages which undermine the Al-Maliki government. The AQI attacks also give al-Maliki and his coalition an excuse to crack down even further on Sunni’s, setting off a vicious little circle.

From the “Holy Crap! File: Two members of the commission which disqualified 500 candidates, two of the board members consisted of Ahmed Chalabi (the disgraced former neo-con poster child who convinced Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld that Iraqis would welcome the US like Patton in Paris before we actually went in to the country).

“Mr. Hashimi has contested the legality of the commission, which is headed by Ali Faisal al-Lami, who until last August was in an American-run prison in Iraq on suspicions that he was involved in bombings that singled out Americans in Iraq, and Ahmed Chalabi, once one of Washington’s top allies here, who is now believed to have close ties with Iran. “

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/world/middleeast/22iraq.html?ref=middleeast

Yeah, not caring so much if they slaughter each other now. Al Qaeda in Iraq is done as a force, so we can declare victory, go home, and watch what happens on CNN with a bag of popcorn.

Afghanistan

Hamid Karzai’s government is trying to cut deals with the Taliban to try to bring them into the political process. The bombings during the swearing in of his cabinet were widely regarded as a repudiation of such efforts, but he’s still trying to make it happen.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/29/world/asia/29diplo.html

There is some thought that the Taliban may be experiencing their own war weariness, but I can’t honestly say that I see it in most of the reports I’m seeing. Militarily, we’re at best in a stand off, at worst we’re losing ground. At another level, I’m not sure that all of our lines of operations are working in harmony. There’s never been any proof that the DoS has actually bought into a unified plan. In fact, some leaked memos indicate that Ambassador Eikenberry may be just going off and doing his own thing.

http://documents.nytimes.com/eikenberry-s-memos-on-the-strategy-in-afghanistan#p=1

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/26/world/asia/26strategy.html

Amb. Eikenberry may have been Army, and he served in Afghanistan, but after doing some research on his areas of expertise, he was a conventional guy who focused his academic studies on China’s political and economic structure. I haven’t found evidence that he gained anything other than an informal background in counter insurgency theory and practice. While his goal of handing over Afghanistan more to civilian personnel working to build the nation may be noble, it is folly in the absence of security.

I had heard stories about this from people returning from Afghanistan, who told me that most Afghan males first have sex at a very early age, and it is usually forced upon them by an older male. I didn’t dismiss it, but I couldn’t make any conclusions based on anecdotal evidence. Then, this came out (warning: graphic):

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/01/28/afghan-men-struggle-sexual-identity-study-finds/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%253A+foxnews%252Fpolitics+%2528Text+-+Politics%2529&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

Oddly enough, some of the men much preferred anal sex with other men over normal sex with a woman, since they regard women as unclean, and therefore sex with other men must be cleaner.

The report said: "When it was explained to him what was necessary, he reacted with disgust and asked, 'How could one feel desire to be with a woman, who God has made unclean, when one could be with a man, who is clean? Surely this must be wrong.'"

Once again, the Islamic world’s real regard for women is laid bare.

Israel

It’s nowhere near DEFCON 1 here. Israel’s leadership is still making the rounds in Europe trying to drum up support for harsher sanctions on Iran.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/international/Netanyahu,_Merkel_to_meet_on_Iran,_Palestinian_issues.html?cid=8106268

Russia

Russia test flew its first stealth fighter this week. It looks amazingly like the YF-23, which lost the fly off against what became the F-22 back in 1991.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2b/Northrop_YF-23_DFRC.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b8/Pak_fa_up.JPG

Any bets on how long it will take before they sell these to the Iranians and the Chinese? The good news is that these probably won’t be operational until 2017.