Lot of interesting stuff going on right now on a lot of fronts, some of it disconcerting.
Terrorism
Apparently the underwear bomber has been singing like a canary again after the FBI flew in family members from Nigeria who convinced him to cooperate with the Feds. Apparently, he's providing actionable intelligence again. Hopefully, the delay doesn't cost us too much, though.
US military and intelligence leaders were unanimous in their certainty during congressional testimony yesterday that al Qaeda will attempt another terrorist attack on U.S. in the next few months.
They noted that the al Qaeda threat is evolving, and always looking for weaknesses. Again and again, al Qaeda keeps going back to attacks on airliners, even though we're more on guard for attacks there than most other places. It's like some sort of jihadist Mount Everest. They're also always looking for opportunities to play on global Muslim sympathies, and to develop effective propaganda that plays internationally, while helping to convince the world that the U.S. is persecuting Muslims around the world.
Best guess on what happens next is that al Qaeda will attempt to use female suicide bombers, or at least try probing our defenses with women. Think of it this way: a woman is fitted with a something simulating a weapon, either in her underwear or carried internally. The phoney device is harmless, and it becomes immediately obvious it was harmless (and legitimate) upon being searched, but if she gets strip searched it provides ammunition for al Qaeda to yell about how people are violating Muslim women. If it gets through, then next time they go through with the real thing. Again, their point of origin will be some corrupt nation with a sizable Muslim population.
Additionally, while the use of females for suicide bombings against western (or US) targets would be a change of tactics, it has been used very successfully in Iraq for years. The most successful recent AQI attack in while happened this week, and was carried out by a woman. Islamic protections of women make it very difficult to effectively search them.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100201/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq_15
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100201/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq_15
Iraq
Anecdotally it looks as though AQI is ramping up it's bombing attacks on civilians in Iraq lately, and has been more successful. In addition to the attack above, they managed to bomb 3 western hotels and the main crime lab in Baghdad.
http://article.wn.com/view/2010/01/26/3_Iraq_hotels_bombed/
http://article.wn.com/view/2010/01/26/3_Iraq_hotels_bombed/
Note that the Iraqi government blamed the attack on Baath Party loyalists, and not AQI. This is an very awkward attempt to provide justification for the ham handed gerrymandering performed by the electoral commission in January.
Iran
Things are heating up here. First, the US is moving additional Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) assets into the Arabian (Persian) Gulf.
Our attempt to convince Israel we are capable of containing any Iranian threat would be a lot more credible if we actually demonstrated we could consistently hit ballistic missiles. However, at the same time we were doing this we had an ABM, specifically simulating an Iranian missile, fail badly during a test over the weekend.
Years ago, then Senator Biden told an Israeli delegation they should just get used to the idea of a nuclear armed Iran. It seems doubtful that Israel is feeling particularly reassured. The US officially admitted as much recently.
At the same time, President Amahdinejad has promised "the nation will deliver a harsh blow to "global arrogance" on February 11." He did not elaborate on what this meant.
This could mean a lot of things. It could be a new round of missile tests, a fiery speech extolling the virtues of the long lived Islamic revolution, or something more sinister. Students seem to be planning to protest on Feb 11th (the anniversary of the revolution). The regime has been dropping hints that protesters deserve death for being enemies of God, pagans, heretics, spies for the west, and traitors. Also, they have been executing protesters, and sentencing even more to death by hanging.
This adds up my strengthening belief that a Tianemen style massacre is coming up on the 11th. By the warped logic of the Iranian leadership, since the west wants regime change and so do the protesters, they're in league. By killing them all, it strikes a blow at the arrogant western belief that the Iranian regime should be (and will be) torn down. Remember the thousand year Reich? Much like that dream, Iran's leaders believe they believe Allah has ordained and blessed their nation and leadership, no regime supported by their deity could possibly fail. Belief otherwise is heresy.
Another possibility is that the surprise is another missile test. This seems unlikely, since they just launched one yesterday.
Apparently, the glorious Islamic Revolution can't afford a monkey.
The worst case scenario is an underground nuclear test. This would come as a huge surprise to most analysts, who believe Iran is years away from this capability. If, however, they found a way to rapidly enrich the uranium, or acquire it from another source (NK, PAK, China, FSU), they could rapidly plug it into a simple (but very reliable) gun type device like the one used on Hiroshima. It would also not be the first time either: the Pakistani nuclear test in 1998 caught us completely unaware: our analysts had believed Pakistan was years away from having a weapon. If this was the case, it begs the question whether the ABM equipped cruisers in the Med and Gulf are there to stop the Iranians...or the Israelis.
The Iranians suddenly seem willing to talk about the nuclear issue, and the students they are holding hostage. Beneath the veneer of civility, it's the same old story: the offer looks good on the surface, but makes unreasonable demands when you get to the specifics. In the case of the students, they want us to hand over people we may or may not actually have (some may have defected) along with terrorists and weapons financiers. In the case of the uranium swap, they set up a time table which is basically impossible to meet.
It's no more than posturing intended to stall, and to attempt to appear reasonable to audiences sitting on the fence.
Israel
Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to tour Europe, pressing for sanctions and seeking to shore up European support for whatever they choose to do next, particularly with regards to the Palestinians. Also, talks regarding Galid Shalit have broken down, since Hamas will not back off its demand for a 1000:1 prisoner swap.
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