I’m rushing to get this one out, something big may be brewing, and we’ll all get to see it on the news when we wake up on the morning of Thursday, February the 11th.
Iran
Both Ayatollah Khameini and President Amadhinejad have told the press that they are going to do something to humiliate the west on the 11th. They have been deliberately cryptic about what it is. Based on both of them saying this, it’s probably not just bluster, this is something they’ve been planning for a while.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.e0b08e9e64fe15a987c1cf73dd8c5fe2.521&show_article=1
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/01/31/iran.protests/index.html?section=cnn_latest
OK, so what could they be referring to? The normal possibilities don’t seem to fit. Iran already announced the production of several new indigenously produced weapons systems (two drones, and a long range missile system they claim is better than the oft delayed Russian S-300 (NATO code SA-20)) this past week. Perhaps they are saving up a bigger weapons system announcement, but it seems unlikely. Iran’s attempts at indigenously produced weapons systems have had middling results at best over the past 15 years. So, if they announced that they were going to build their own submarines, we would probably either know about it already (tough to hide something that big), or it would end up being nothing more than bragging about pipe dreams.
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-45987720100208
They already had a space launch last week (see the previous weekly update for details and snarky comments). It’s possible they could launch something bigger. Perhaps a spy satellite? An extended range ballistic missile that can hit all of Europe (including the UK?) Maybe an astronaut with a lot of Chinese help? Seems unlikely again, because we’d probably have more forewarning. Missiles are tough to hide, and launching something obviously designed and built by the Chinese is sort of ho-hum, like carrying a foreign national on the space shuttle. Also, Iran celebrated the revolution last year by launching its first satellite. Not much shock and awe there either, sort of like giving your wife the same thing for her birthday two years running.
A more intriguing option is that Iran is planning to massacre the green movement (including the leadership, maybe they’ll get a show trial before they’re hung) en masse when they protest on Thursday. It would certainly crush western hopes for regime change (and strike at our arrogance for believing the Islamic Republic would fall). The clerics and the regime have been laying the ground work for a massacre for a long time. Revolutionary guard commanders promising forceful responses to protesters, clerics issuing edicts declaring the protesters as enemies of God and tools of the West. The green movement has been calling for protests. There will definitely be clashes Thursday, but how bloody they turn out to be is entirely up to the regime. My money says it’s going to be extraordinarily bad.
As mentioned last week, a final (and least likely possibility) is a nuclear test. This seems very unlikely, but of all the possibilities this would seem to be the one with the most shock value. Most experts don’t believe Iran has enough super high enriched uranium….yet. This week they announced they will be enriching their stocks to 20% for “medical research.” Right. With this move, even Russia doesn’t seem to be buying their claims of “peaceful purposes” anymore (although they still won’t support anything but targeted sanctions, not general economic ones). China, of course, has not changed their stance.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/02/09/iran.uranium.enrichment/index.html?hpt=T2
The practical upshot is that experts think it will take about a year to get it up to 20%, but that’s the 80% solution, since getting it up to 90% (weapons grade) will only take another 6 months after that. However, it indicates that Iran probably doesn’t have a nuke yet, making a nuclear test on the 11th seem unlikely.
So, I’ve snuck downstairs and given the box Iran has wrapped for us a good shake. Sounds like a massacre; a combination between Tianamen Square and night of the long knives, where they aim to take out both the rank and file of the green movement and the leadership (Moussavi) in the same day.
Iraq
Vice President Biden has convinced the Iraqi government to hold off on the political suspensions until after the election. The idea is that most of the people who were banned from the election probably won’t win anyway, so it will really cut down on the number of appeals the judiciary will have to hear in the aftermath. The most obvious argument afterwards will be that this still influenced the election, since people will be discouraged from voting for a candidate who will likely be disqualified anyway.
That doesn’t mean things are really much better though.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20100208/cm_thenation/1096527708_1
Iraq is falling further and further under the sway of Iran, and unless something changes radically (like Iran ceasing to be a military or economic power very suddenly), it will continue down this path until they are a proxy state similar to Syria.
China
A bit far afield for this blog, but a pair of recent articles highlights exactly what kind of trouble we’re in, and how we got here.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article7017951.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797093
Here’s the quote that really got me:
“We should retaliate with an eye for an eye and sell arms to Iran, North Korea, Syria, Cuba and Venezuela,” declared Liu Menxiong, a member of the Chinese people’s political consultative conference. He added: “We have nothing to be afraid of. The North Koreans have stood up to America and has anything happened to them? No. Iran stands up to America and does disaster befall it? No.”
What this illustrates is that the concept of being afraid to flex military causing enemies to be emboldened is not just a neo-con fantasy. This is in relatively left leaning newspaper, and in our opponents own words. Our handling of North Korea and Iran has made the US look like a paper tiger to many. A policy of talk first, last and always serves to destabilize the situation, possibly more so than kicking in the door the way we did with Iraq.
Another good article on how the China basically has the US in a sleeper hold we can’t break out of:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/china_debt_bomb_onc23nzJdiQR7gTLkrwSpL
Can’t really see a good way out of this one, other than to slash entitlements (medicare, Medicaid, social security) since discretionary spending is only a small portion of the budget. Raising taxes would likely be necessary as well. However, those options are not politically viable, and thus we'll have to go off the economic cliff before we change.
Israel
Israel is screaming for tough sanctions. Same as always. Still unlikely to get what they’re asking for, especially with a bellicose and intransigent China running interference, and Russia unwilling to do more than targeted sanctions.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE6181A8.htm
On another note, Netanyahu is parked in Israel again. I suspect they have most of their top defense people back in country as well while they try to figure out just what the Feb 11th surprise is.
Afghanistan
The coalition is still loudly announcing its plan for an assault on Marjah, while coordinating with local civilians to try to reduce casualties.
After some careful thought, I’m revising my estimate of what the outcome will be here. This is going to end up looking a lot like Fallujah: tons of booby traps, the important bad guys will be long gone, and a small core group of lower level martyrs and a very small level of mid level folks will be left behind to inflict casualties on the marines via traps, and carefully set ambushes in ideal locations. The Taliban doesn’t have that many people, relatively, so it can’t afford a true stand up fight. However, if it can exact roughly equal casualties with US forces via lots and lots of IEDs (perhaps thousands have already been planted) and some well coordinated ambushes, this upcoming fight becomes a strategic victory for them, particularly in terms of Information Warfare.
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