Terrorism
In December 5 members of an Army Arabic translation unit were detained for allegations that they were plotting to poison service members at the location. The Army says that there “is no credible information to support the allegations." It is unclear if they are still being held.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,586721,00.html?test=latestnews
http://blogs.cbn.com/stakelbeckonterror/archive/2010/02/18/update-five-muslim-soldiers-arrested-at-fort-jackson-in.aspx
Two sides to this one. If the allegations are untrue, then the government just took a punch in the teeth. What Muslim would go to work for a intel group when some dim-witted and bigoted co-worker is probably going to make up crap to get them hauled away? Another angle on this is a lot of Army brass is going to be hyper sensitive about allegations of a 5th column after the Fort Hood shooting. Most of the people who ignored the warning signs about Major Hassan are probably going to get letters of reprimand, and be career dead ended, or forced to retire. If they really were planning something, then it brings up the old question: if communism is a belief system with religious aspects, and Islam is a belief system based on religion, why is it legal to discriminate against Communists and not Muslims? The constitution provides protections for religions, even if they are dangerous to the public good. This isn’t an argument against the first amendment, merely an acknowledgement that it is much harder to fight religiously motivated enemies of the state than it is ones who have a secular belief system.
Pakistan
This past week, it was announced that Pakistani forces, given intelligence by the CIA, captured the functional Commander in Chief of the Afghanistani Taliban, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. He’s not saying much, though. Additionally, American intel types weren’t allowed to question him for almost two weeks after his capture. There is some suspiscion that Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI, was worried he’d reveal how much the ISI has been helping the Taliban in Afghanistan over the years. It has been an open secret that the ISI has been riddled with Taliban sympathizers since before 9/11.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/19/world/asia/19intel.html
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/nation_world/20100218_Captured_Taliban_chief_is_saying_little.html
Additionally, Pakistani forces rolled up two Taliban “Shadow Governors” in the aftermath.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/19/world/asia/19taliban.html
There’s all sorts of implications to this. First is that it briefly creates a power vacuum at the top, and that strategic planning of the Taliban may be disrupted as they scramble to re-establish a hierarchy. Another implication is that Pakistan’s leadership is finally taking the Afghan Taliban as seriously as the Pakistani Taliban, since the two organizations are strongly linked and providing each other support. Over time, as Baradar let’s things slip, it will give insight into the Taliban’s top level of strategy. While not as useful as time sensitive operational and tactical details, it still helps us develop a more effective strategy over time. He is also a bargaining chip, and the most optimistic in the DoS think he might lead to a reconciliation. The most tantalizing possibility is he could lead to the capture of UBL eventually. The latter is a long shot, but it’s also information he’d feel more inclined to divulge, since he could be convinced that if the US gets UBL, they’ll be less inclined to stick around in Afghanistan with no lingering causus belli.
Afghanistan
The assault on Marjah is on, and darned if I can make out who’s winning this one. The Coalition and the Afghanis are making extremely slow progress. It may take a full month to secure the town of only 80,000 people. The reasons behind this are primarily extremely tight rules of engagement (ROE) designed to minimize civilian casualties. Airpower is extremely difficult to come by as a result.
However, that still hasn’t been enough to prevent them. On the second day of the assault someone in the army screwed up a call for artillery fired, and planted a pair of rockets into a home 600 yards away from the intended target, killing 12 civilians. The army withdrew the weapon while investigating, the put it back into play Wednesday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aP9PlZjNrXXo
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-fg-afghanistan-civilians18-2010feb18,0,4359902.story
It hasn’t taken long for the Taliban fighters to figure out our ROE, and exploit them to the maximum extent possible, including liberal use of human shields.
http://www.fayobserver.com/Articles/2010/02/15/976418
http://www.usatoday.com/NEWS/usaedition/2010-02-18-marjah18_ST_U.htm?csp=34
Military casualties have been relatively low: 12 killed so far. However, right now I think the Taliban are winning this one for several reasons:
1. They have their propaganda tool already: those 12 civilians killed by the coalition, and in one go, are enough for them to stir up a lot of hate and fear towards the coalition going forward.
2. It doesn’t matter if only 10% of the population supports the Taliban, you look pretty freaking tough when 400 or so of your fighters can hold off 3,000+ US Marines for a month. Never mind the fact that the Marines are fighting with both hands tied behind their backs due to ROE. It’s still an information operations victory. Think Alamo, or Wake Island. Makes for one hell of a rallying cry.
On another note, a British officer remarked in the 19th Century that “An Afghan’s loyalty cannot be bought, it can only be rented. Apparently 25 Afghani policemen defected this week over pay issues. Oh, and they took their vehicles and heavy weapons with them. Oops.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/19/world/asia/19police.html
Iran
Iran’s “punch” at the west never clearly emerged last week. Was it their extremely effective suppression of green movement protests before they even began? Was is the declaration they had already enriched uranium to 20%? More likely than not, (hindsight being 20-20) their comments were intended for primarily domestic audiences. Based on articles out there Revolutionary Guard Basiji intimidation, plus government interference in electronic media prevented the protests from taking off. Based on the article below (and a little easy math) pro-government turn out outnumbered anti-government protesters 25-1.
http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/clashes-erupt-at-major-anti-government-protests-in-iran-19708.html
Any Western leader hoping for changes from within needs to just forget it. It’s not happening. Consider the abject failure that is North Korea, and you get an idea how long these guys can hang onto power.
On the nuclear front, the usually cautious and diplomatic IAEA has weighed in on Iran, and has declared they have strong evidence I ran has been working on nuclear warheads since 2004. The IAEA report, in particular, dumps on the 2007 NIE that declared Iran hadn’t actively been working on a warhead since 2003.
http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/inspectors-say-iran-worked-on-warhead-19765.html
“In fact, some in the Obama administration suspect that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps or its leading religious leaders are betting that an escalation of the nuclear confrontation might distract attention from the protests that have rocked the government, while unifying the country against outsiders supposedly trying to suppress Iran’s rise as a significant power.”
I’m not sure who’s doing the mental math, but it’s one hell of an assumption to bet the existence of your country on the assumption the Israelis will pull their punches. You only unify the country if there’s a country left to unify.
“In its report, the institute also questioned Iran’s moving most of its stocks of low-enriched uranium into the plant at Natanz, which is doing the high enrichment. The transfer, it said, implied that Iran planned to enrich it all to higher levels and produce “far in excess” of any fuel needed for its stated purpose of fueling a medical reactor in Tehran.”
This is another line crossed. Based on the assessment that Iran is working for miniaturization, it implies a more sophisticated warhead. That gives us as little as 18 months before they are a nuclear armed power. They’re getting close. Gut feeling tells me that the outcome of this situation will be what comes to define the Obama administration. Will it be President Carter and the Desert One, or more like Regan and Operation Praying Mantis? Time will tell. The only sure thing is that oil prices will be going up.
Oh, did I mention the administration has ruled out any options but diplomacy and unilateral sanctions?
http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/us-has-no-plan-for-military-action-against-iran-clinton-19760.html
Given that Iran is producing modern indigenously built guided missile frigates despite the weapons trade sanctions placed on them, it should be pretty clear how much of a chance sanctions have of working.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100219/wl_mideast_afp/iranmilitarynavyship_20100219131740
Again, Israel has pretty well figured they’re on their own, but they’re going to wait until the last minute (or some ideal moment when the rest of the world is already absolutely disgusted with Iran), to do something to deflect international criticism.
Israel
It looks like Israel got it’s hand caught in the cookie jar recently. On 20 JAN 2010 a senior Hamas commander, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, was found murdered in his hotel room in Dubai. Reports indicate he was both electrocuted and suffocated. Ouch.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE61H17M.htm
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100218/D9DUJ2G01.html
France and the U.K. were both infuriated, but has nothing to do with the dead terrorist. Those responsible used forged British and French passports of dual citizenship Israelis. Apparently, the Brits (at least) had a standing gentlemen’s agreement with the Mossad that British passports were never to be used for their activities. In return, the Brits and the Mossad shared intelligence. This is in danger now, and the U.K. is threatening to server intelligence ties with the Israelis. Additionally, the Israeli Ambassador to the U.K. was summoned to address the issue and offer an explanation.
I don’t think the Israeli’s expected the UAE police to bas as competent as they have been. This hurts their standing with the Europeans, right at the moment when they’re begging large European nations (like Germany and France) to unilaterally slap heavy duty sanctions on Iran. Not sure what their game is, but one or more of the following may be true:
1. They never expected it to go down this way,
2. This guy was way too juicy a target to pass up
3. They never gave a flying fig about the Europeans imposing sanctions on Iran, since they don’t expect them to work worth a damn anyway.
4. It wasn’t really the Mossad. Some of the people captured are Palestinian, and lots of Fatah members wanted this Hamas guy dead.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Weekly Intel Update for 9 FEB 2010
I’m rushing to get this one out, something big may be brewing, and we’ll all get to see it on the news when we wake up on the morning of Thursday, February the 11th.
Iran
Both Ayatollah Khameini and President Amadhinejad have told the press that they are going to do something to humiliate the west on the 11th. They have been deliberately cryptic about what it is. Based on both of them saying this, it’s probably not just bluster, this is something they’ve been planning for a while.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.e0b08e9e64fe15a987c1cf73dd8c5fe2.521&show_article=1
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/01/31/iran.protests/index.html?section=cnn_latest
OK, so what could they be referring to? The normal possibilities don’t seem to fit. Iran already announced the production of several new indigenously produced weapons systems (two drones, and a long range missile system they claim is better than the oft delayed Russian S-300 (NATO code SA-20)) this past week. Perhaps they are saving up a bigger weapons system announcement, but it seems unlikely. Iran’s attempts at indigenously produced weapons systems have had middling results at best over the past 15 years. So, if they announced that they were going to build their own submarines, we would probably either know about it already (tough to hide something that big), or it would end up being nothing more than bragging about pipe dreams.
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-45987720100208
They already had a space launch last week (see the previous weekly update for details and snarky comments). It’s possible they could launch something bigger. Perhaps a spy satellite? An extended range ballistic missile that can hit all of Europe (including the UK?) Maybe an astronaut with a lot of Chinese help? Seems unlikely again, because we’d probably have more forewarning. Missiles are tough to hide, and launching something obviously designed and built by the Chinese is sort of ho-hum, like carrying a foreign national on the space shuttle. Also, Iran celebrated the revolution last year by launching its first satellite. Not much shock and awe there either, sort of like giving your wife the same thing for her birthday two years running.
A more intriguing option is that Iran is planning to massacre the green movement (including the leadership, maybe they’ll get a show trial before they’re hung) en masse when they protest on Thursday. It would certainly crush western hopes for regime change (and strike at our arrogance for believing the Islamic Republic would fall). The clerics and the regime have been laying the ground work for a massacre for a long time. Revolutionary guard commanders promising forceful responses to protesters, clerics issuing edicts declaring the protesters as enemies of God and tools of the West. The green movement has been calling for protests. There will definitely be clashes Thursday, but how bloody they turn out to be is entirely up to the regime. My money says it’s going to be extraordinarily bad.
As mentioned last week, a final (and least likely possibility) is a nuclear test. This seems very unlikely, but of all the possibilities this would seem to be the one with the most shock value. Most experts don’t believe Iran has enough super high enriched uranium….yet. This week they announced they will be enriching their stocks to 20% for “medical research.” Right. With this move, even Russia doesn’t seem to be buying their claims of “peaceful purposes” anymore (although they still won’t support anything but targeted sanctions, not general economic ones). China, of course, has not changed their stance.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/02/09/iran.uranium.enrichment/index.html?hpt=T2
The practical upshot is that experts think it will take about a year to get it up to 20%, but that’s the 80% solution, since getting it up to 90% (weapons grade) will only take another 6 months after that. However, it indicates that Iran probably doesn’t have a nuke yet, making a nuclear test on the 11th seem unlikely.
So, I’ve snuck downstairs and given the box Iran has wrapped for us a good shake. Sounds like a massacre; a combination between Tianamen Square and night of the long knives, where they aim to take out both the rank and file of the green movement and the leadership (Moussavi) in the same day.
Iraq
Vice President Biden has convinced the Iraqi government to hold off on the political suspensions until after the election. The idea is that most of the people who were banned from the election probably won’t win anyway, so it will really cut down on the number of appeals the judiciary will have to hear in the aftermath. The most obvious argument afterwards will be that this still influenced the election, since people will be discouraged from voting for a candidate who will likely be disqualified anyway.
That doesn’t mean things are really much better though.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20100208/cm_thenation/1096527708_1
Iraq is falling further and further under the sway of Iran, and unless something changes radically (like Iran ceasing to be a military or economic power very suddenly), it will continue down this path until they are a proxy state similar to Syria.
China
A bit far afield for this blog, but a pair of recent articles highlights exactly what kind of trouble we’re in, and how we got here.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article7017951.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797093
Here’s the quote that really got me:
“We should retaliate with an eye for an eye and sell arms to Iran, North Korea, Syria, Cuba and Venezuela,” declared Liu Menxiong, a member of the Chinese people’s political consultative conference. He added: “We have nothing to be afraid of. The North Koreans have stood up to America and has anything happened to them? No. Iran stands up to America and does disaster befall it? No.”
What this illustrates is that the concept of being afraid to flex military causing enemies to be emboldened is not just a neo-con fantasy. This is in relatively left leaning newspaper, and in our opponents own words. Our handling of North Korea and Iran has made the US look like a paper tiger to many. A policy of talk first, last and always serves to destabilize the situation, possibly more so than kicking in the door the way we did with Iraq.
Another good article on how the China basically has the US in a sleeper hold we can’t break out of:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/china_debt_bomb_onc23nzJdiQR7gTLkrwSpL
Can’t really see a good way out of this one, other than to slash entitlements (medicare, Medicaid, social security) since discretionary spending is only a small portion of the budget. Raising taxes would likely be necessary as well. However, those options are not politically viable, and thus we'll have to go off the economic cliff before we change.
Israel
Israel is screaming for tough sanctions. Same as always. Still unlikely to get what they’re asking for, especially with a bellicose and intransigent China running interference, and Russia unwilling to do more than targeted sanctions.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE6181A8.htm
On another note, Netanyahu is parked in Israel again. I suspect they have most of their top defense people back in country as well while they try to figure out just what the Feb 11th surprise is.
Afghanistan
The coalition is still loudly announcing its plan for an assault on Marjah, while coordinating with local civilians to try to reduce casualties.
After some careful thought, I’m revising my estimate of what the outcome will be here. This is going to end up looking a lot like Fallujah: tons of booby traps, the important bad guys will be long gone, and a small core group of lower level martyrs and a very small level of mid level folks will be left behind to inflict casualties on the marines via traps, and carefully set ambushes in ideal locations. The Taliban doesn’t have that many people, relatively, so it can’t afford a true stand up fight. However, if it can exact roughly equal casualties with US forces via lots and lots of IEDs (perhaps thousands have already been planted) and some well coordinated ambushes, this upcoming fight becomes a strategic victory for them, particularly in terms of Information Warfare.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Feb 4th 2010
*Breaking News*
British MI5 indicates that the latest threat to airliners may not, in fact, be explosives carried in the nether regions. However, the idea of using female bombers and placing the explosives in traditionally taboo areas on / in their bodies is gaining traction in the jihadist community. It's PETN based breast augmentation.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=123758
It sounds nutty at first, but it makes perfect sense when you think about it. Without being juvenile, you would have to really palpate the area to notice that it didn't feel right. Can you imagine the havoc it would cause if women now had to have their breasts groped up in order to board a plane? How about if someone who didn't actually have a bomb got frisked? And they were Muslim / Arabic looking / had an Arabic sounding name? All you can eat trial lawyer smorgasboard.
British MI5 indicates that the latest threat to airliners may not, in fact, be explosives carried in the nether regions. However, the idea of using female bombers and placing the explosives in traditionally taboo areas on / in their bodies is gaining traction in the jihadist community. It's PETN based breast augmentation.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=123758
It sounds nutty at first, but it makes perfect sense when you think about it. Without being juvenile, you would have to really palpate the area to notice that it didn't feel right. Can you imagine the havoc it would cause if women now had to have their breasts groped up in order to board a plane? How about if someone who didn't actually have a bomb got frisked? And they were Muslim / Arabic looking / had an Arabic sounding name? All you can eat trial lawyer smorgasboard.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Weekly Intel Update for 3 FEB 2010
Lot of interesting stuff going on right now on a lot of fronts, some of it disconcerting.
Terrorism
Apparently the underwear bomber has been singing like a canary again after the FBI flew in family members from Nigeria who convinced him to cooperate with the Feds. Apparently, he's providing actionable intelligence again. Hopefully, the delay doesn't cost us too much, though.
US military and intelligence leaders were unanimous in their certainty during congressional testimony yesterday that al Qaeda will attempt another terrorist attack on U.S. in the next few months.
They noted that the al Qaeda threat is evolving, and always looking for weaknesses. Again and again, al Qaeda keeps going back to attacks on airliners, even though we're more on guard for attacks there than most other places. It's like some sort of jihadist Mount Everest. They're also always looking for opportunities to play on global Muslim sympathies, and to develop effective propaganda that plays internationally, while helping to convince the world that the U.S. is persecuting Muslims around the world.
Best guess on what happens next is that al Qaeda will attempt to use female suicide bombers, or at least try probing our defenses with women. Think of it this way: a woman is fitted with a something simulating a weapon, either in her underwear or carried internally. The phoney device is harmless, and it becomes immediately obvious it was harmless (and legitimate) upon being searched, but if she gets strip searched it provides ammunition for al Qaeda to yell about how people are violating Muslim women. If it gets through, then next time they go through with the real thing. Again, their point of origin will be some corrupt nation with a sizable Muslim population.
Additionally, while the use of females for suicide bombings against western (or US) targets would be a change of tactics, it has been used very successfully in Iraq for years. The most successful recent AQI attack in while happened this week, and was carried out by a woman. Islamic protections of women make it very difficult to effectively search them.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100201/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq_15
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100201/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq_15
Iraq
Anecdotally it looks as though AQI is ramping up it's bombing attacks on civilians in Iraq lately, and has been more successful. In addition to the attack above, they managed to bomb 3 western hotels and the main crime lab in Baghdad.
http://article.wn.com/view/2010/01/26/3_Iraq_hotels_bombed/
http://article.wn.com/view/2010/01/26/3_Iraq_hotels_bombed/
Note that the Iraqi government blamed the attack on Baath Party loyalists, and not AQI. This is an very awkward attempt to provide justification for the ham handed gerrymandering performed by the electoral commission in January.
Iran
Things are heating up here. First, the US is moving additional Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) assets into the Arabian (Persian) Gulf.
Our attempt to convince Israel we are capable of containing any Iranian threat would be a lot more credible if we actually demonstrated we could consistently hit ballistic missiles. However, at the same time we were doing this we had an ABM, specifically simulating an Iranian missile, fail badly during a test over the weekend.
Years ago, then Senator Biden told an Israeli delegation they should just get used to the idea of a nuclear armed Iran. It seems doubtful that Israel is feeling particularly reassured. The US officially admitted as much recently.
At the same time, President Amahdinejad has promised "the nation will deliver a harsh blow to "global arrogance" on February 11." He did not elaborate on what this meant.
This could mean a lot of things. It could be a new round of missile tests, a fiery speech extolling the virtues of the long lived Islamic revolution, or something more sinister. Students seem to be planning to protest on Feb 11th (the anniversary of the revolution). The regime has been dropping hints that protesters deserve death for being enemies of God, pagans, heretics, spies for the west, and traitors. Also, they have been executing protesters, and sentencing even more to death by hanging.
This adds up my strengthening belief that a Tianemen style massacre is coming up on the 11th. By the warped logic of the Iranian leadership, since the west wants regime change and so do the protesters, they're in league. By killing them all, it strikes a blow at the arrogant western belief that the Iranian regime should be (and will be) torn down. Remember the thousand year Reich? Much like that dream, Iran's leaders believe they believe Allah has ordained and blessed their nation and leadership, no regime supported by their deity could possibly fail. Belief otherwise is heresy.
Another possibility is that the surprise is another missile test. This seems unlikely, since they just launched one yesterday.
Apparently, the glorious Islamic Revolution can't afford a monkey.
The worst case scenario is an underground nuclear test. This would come as a huge surprise to most analysts, who believe Iran is years away from this capability. If, however, they found a way to rapidly enrich the uranium, or acquire it from another source (NK, PAK, China, FSU), they could rapidly plug it into a simple (but very reliable) gun type device like the one used on Hiroshima. It would also not be the first time either: the Pakistani nuclear test in 1998 caught us completely unaware: our analysts had believed Pakistan was years away from having a weapon. If this was the case, it begs the question whether the ABM equipped cruisers in the Med and Gulf are there to stop the Iranians...or the Israelis.
The Iranians suddenly seem willing to talk about the nuclear issue, and the students they are holding hostage. Beneath the veneer of civility, it's the same old story: the offer looks good on the surface, but makes unreasonable demands when you get to the specifics. In the case of the students, they want us to hand over people we may or may not actually have (some may have defected) along with terrorists and weapons financiers. In the case of the uranium swap, they set up a time table which is basically impossible to meet.
It's no more than posturing intended to stall, and to attempt to appear reasonable to audiences sitting on the fence.
Israel
Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to tour Europe, pressing for sanctions and seeking to shore up European support for whatever they choose to do next, particularly with regards to the Palestinians. Also, talks regarding Galid Shalit have broken down, since Hamas will not back off its demand for a 1000:1 prisoner swap.
Weekly Intel Update for 27 JAN 2010
Things are relatively quiet here now. No earth shattering revelations, just events carrying us inexorably downstream.
Iran
The Iranian regime is stepping up its executions of dissidents. I strongly suspect the plan is to try to intimidate the movement into going underground, and if that doesn’t work, a Tianemen style massacre will work just as well. However, keep in mind that if Iran does this, the week following the event becomes the most politically advantageous time for Israel to take as hard a swing as they feel like at Iran. After massacring thousands of their own people in Iran, and facing intense international condemnation, how many nations are going to come rushing to the Iranian governments defense later in the same week? Given how cocky and arrogant their government has become, it is my guess it is possible the Iranians have not considered this possibility, or dismissed it out of hand
Russia’s minister of arms exports sees no reason why it’s sale of S-300 surface to air missiles shouldn’t go through.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/29/arms-trader-sees-no-threat-in-possible-sale-to-ira/
Once Iran gets these missiles, a conventional strike by traditional (non-stealth) aircraft becomes very difficult to accomplish. The S-300 is nasty. Basically, anything not stealthy is going to have a heck of time getting past it.
US congress is contemplating more sanctions on Iran. However, given the severity of our own sanctions already in place it’s doubtful that the new ones proposed with have any actual bite. It mostly targets companies which do business with the revolutionary guard, and companies that provide refined petroleum products to Iran. (Despite its oil wealth, Iran only refines a minority of the gasoline and diesel it uses)
http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/us-senate-votes-to-slap-new-sanctions-on-iran-19591.html
The sanctions also repeal a Clinton era exemption for carpets, caviar, and pistachios. Guess I was smart to trade that Renault for a rug back in 2005.
With France in control of the rotating UN Security Council chair starting February 1st, the west is gearing up to try and get sanctions through, or at least get the process started and lining their ducks up to put pressure on China. No signs yet of China backing down or deciding the time is right.
Iraq
A series of suicide bombs went off in Baghdad at several hotels frequented by westerners this week, killing 36 and wounding over 100.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/25/AR2010012500599.html
Also, member of AQI continue to be picked off.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/28/AR2010012801191.html
As a whole, AQI has been weakened. However, they still remain very capable of carrying out attacks which carry strong psychological messages which undermine the Al-Maliki government. The AQI attacks also give al-Maliki and his coalition an excuse to crack down even further on Sunni’s, setting off a vicious little circle.
From the “Holy Crap! File: Two members of the commission which disqualified 500 candidates, two of the board members consisted of Ahmed Chalabi (the disgraced former neo-con poster child who convinced Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld that Iraqis would welcome the US like Patton in Paris before we actually went in to the country).
“Mr. Hashimi has contested the legality of the commission, which is headed by Ali Faisal al-Lami, who until last August was in an American-run prison in Iraq on suspicions that he was involved in bombings that singled out Americans in Iraq, and Ahmed Chalabi, once one of Washington’s top allies here, who is now believed to have close ties with Iran. “
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/world/middleeast/22iraq.html?ref=middleeast
Yeah, not caring so much if they slaughter each other now. Al Qaeda in Iraq is done as a force, so we can declare victory, go home, and watch what happens on CNN with a bag of popcorn.
Afghanistan
Hamid Karzai’s government is trying to cut deals with the Taliban to try to bring them into the political process. The bombings during the swearing in of his cabinet were widely regarded as a repudiation of such efforts, but he’s still trying to make it happen.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/29/world/asia/29diplo.html
There is some thought that the Taliban may be experiencing their own war weariness, but I can’t honestly say that I see it in most of the reports I’m seeing. Militarily, we’re at best in a stand off, at worst we’re losing ground. At another level, I’m not sure that all of our lines of operations are working in harmony. There’s never been any proof that the DoS has actually bought into a unified plan. In fact, some leaked memos indicate that Ambassador Eikenberry may be just going off and doing his own thing.
http://documents.nytimes.com/eikenberry-s-memos-on-the-strategy-in-afghanistan#p=1
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/26/world/asia/26strategy.html
Amb. Eikenberry may have been Army, and he served in Afghanistan, but after doing some research on his areas of expertise, he was a conventional guy who focused his academic studies on China’s political and economic structure. I haven’t found evidence that he gained anything other than an informal background in counter insurgency theory and practice. While his goal of handing over Afghanistan more to civilian personnel working to build the nation may be noble, it is folly in the absence of security.
I had heard stories about this from people returning from Afghanistan, who told me that most Afghan males first have sex at a very early age, and it is usually forced upon them by an older male. I didn’t dismiss it, but I couldn’t make any conclusions based on anecdotal evidence. Then, this came out (warning: graphic):
Oddly enough, some of the men much preferred anal sex with other men over normal sex with a woman, since they regard women as unclean, and therefore sex with other men must be cleaner.
The report said: "When it was explained to him what was necessary, he reacted with disgust and asked, 'How could one feel desire to be with a woman, who God has made unclean, when one could be with a man, who is clean? Surely this must be wrong.'"
Once again, the Islamic world’s real regard for women is laid bare.
Israel
It’s nowhere near DEFCON 1 here. Israel’s leadership is still making the rounds in Europe trying to drum up support for harsher sanctions on Iran.
Russia
Russia test flew its first stealth fighter this week. It looks amazingly like the YF-23, which lost the fly off against what became the F-22 back in 1991.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2b/Northrop_YF-23_DFRC.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b8/Pak_fa_up.JPG
Any bets on how long it will take before they sell these to the Iranians and the Chinese? The good news is that these probably won’t be operational until 2017.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Intel Report 20 Jan
First off, it looks like I was running 24 hours ahead of the news cycle on my last report....again!
Even though the earthquake in Haiti has sucked all the air out of the newsrooms, there have actually been a lot of developments and good articles this week.
Iraq
Two significant items here. There first is that Iraq disqualified 500 political candidates and 15 parties entirely from their upcoming provincial elections. This was done under the legal auspices of preventing former Baathists from coming back into power. However, the panel that made these decisions was handpicked by Prime Minister al-Maliki, and targets Sunnis. Maliki has had long standing ties to unsavory, Iranian backed characters like Muqtada al-Sadr, and turned a blind eye on the Shi’ite death squads that were tearing the country apart prior to the surge. He fought US commanders tooth and nail when they tried to implement strategies to stop the death squads, which ended up ethnically entire sections of the capitol.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/iraq/2010737892_iraq08.html
The decision looks very partisan, even to casual western observers. Among those banned include a former defense minister and a former President (Alawi). The end result is that many Sunnis feel they have been cut out of the political process, and that it makes the government look non-representative and repressive. If Iraq goes up in flames again, historians will look back at this decision as the spark that started the fire.
On a similar note, only 50,000 of the 96,000 Sons of Iraq have been integrated into the government service so far. That leaves almost 50,000 armed former insurgents with a grudge if the political process fails.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100119/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq_32
The U.S. had to lean on al-Maliki HARD to get him to integrate even a fraction of the former insurgents into national service.
Afghanistan
Nothing but bad news out of Afghanistan this week. First off, my prediction that the Taliban will melt away out of Marjah looks to be right. In fact, that was the plan all along, apparently.
“By openly discussing their plans for Marjah, military officials risk the possibility that the Taliban will act contrary to their plans and mount a stiff defense that could swell American casualties. But defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the future military operation, said commanders are banking on the assumption that Taliban foot soldiers may choose to quietly slip back to their civilian lives rather than face vastly superior U.S. forces.”
My best guess is that because McChrystal never really supported the Helmand operations in the first place, he’s mostly looking for a way to get out, claim victory, avoid casualties, and move on to operations he feels more vital. We’ll see if he bother to follow the COIN strategy of “Clear, Hold, Build”, though, since we already did the first part. Problem is, holding requires lots of troops to babysit the locals.
The Taliban is continuing to score big. This week they conducted a series of embarrassing attacks on the capitol (Kabul) while Hamid Karzai was swearing in what little of his cabinet was confirmed by the Assembly.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2010-01-19-afghanistan-security_N.htm?csp=34
At first blush, this attack appears to have been a failure. The militants inflicted light casualties, didn’t achieve any of their tactical goals, and died to a man. Problem is, it was a major strategic victory in the same way the Tet offensive was. It sent the message that the US and the Afghan government can’t protect you. And that is a perception fatal to any COIN operation.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/20/world/asia/20kabul.html
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/losing_the_info_war_39kX5JCU6zkaAxMS7vaCKI
Note that the Taliban got their message across loud and clear…and that some of the locals think the US was behind it. This brings me to my next point. Even though the US has worked hard to reduce civilian casualties in Afghanistan (2/3rds of all civilian casualties are now caused by the Taliban) via ever more restrictive rules of engagement, the Taliban is still able to successfully blame the US for casualties, and to stir up riots whenever it’s convenient using fabricated incidents which play upon cultural fears and stereotypes (much the way the Klan did to stir people up against Blacks, Jews, and Catholics once upon a time). The propaganda war for the Taliban is pretty simple if all they have to do is schwack civilians with a hidden bomb, send in a few ringers to claim a US drone did it, and leave.
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/01/15/taliban-cause-most-civilian-deaths-but-u-s-gets-the-blame/
Oh, wait, it gets worse. Only 15% of all Afghani recruits are literate. 21.3% of the Afghan economy (GDP) consists of bribes. $2.5 billion in bribes. To put it in perspective, the opium trade brings in $2.8 billion. As things stand, getting the people to trust the government is a hopeless task.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/Afghanistan/article6990580.ece
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100119/ap_on_re_eu/eu_britain_afghanistan_corruption_report_3
There are also signals that the various players in the DoD, congress, DoS, and White House aren’t all on the same page, and it’s sending a lot of mixed messages. Indeed, Secretary Gates was in India this week reassuring them that the US wouldn’t abruptly leave Afghanistan, despite what VP Biden and Sen. Levin might be saying back home. This lack of cohesion doesn’t help the folks on the ground at all, and strengthens the Taliban. President Obama needs to lay down the law to all the various parties about staying “on message”. He knows how to do it in a campaign, and this isn’t very much different. It’s still a PR campaign with a central message.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus17-2010jan17,0,320817.column
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/20/world/asia/20briefs-India.html?hp&ex=&ei=&partner=
Iran
Iran finally officially announced it was rejecting the SC5+1 proposal. They’re only 3 months late. No one seemed to bat an eyelash.
http://www.iranfocus.com/en/nuclear/iran-snubs-nuclear-fuel-deal-diplomats-19542.html
The G5+1 met at the UN. The US bent over backwards to accommodate Chinese demands in order to make the meeting happen. In response, China snubbed the group and sent a low level functionary at the UN to the meeting, and flatly rejected further sanctions, saying “now is the wrong time”.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9aa27c02-03a1-11df-a601-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Still, Western diplomats see some hope in the Chinese phrasing, which leaves open a window that there may be a right time…some time. Western diplomats remind me of nothing so much as a teen-age girls sitting by the phone waiting for her two timing ex-boyfriend to call. There’s probably a lot more productive ways to spend your time.
Still, there is a ray of hope in this. It is possible that a group of countries would be willing to impose sanctions unilaterally, and bypass China. It would hurt Iran, but China is their biggest trading partner (15% of China’s oil comes from Iran). Thus, it seems likely that such non-uniform sanctions would have a very limited effect on Iran (as has been described in previous posts)
In the better late than never category, US intelligence officials have finally fessed up that the 2007 NIE assessment of Iran (which stated Iran had stopped nuclear work in 2003) was completely wrong.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/19/review-says-iran-never-halted-nuke-work-in-2003/
Score one for intel services…again. Day late and a dollar short as usual. As a result of their collective bungling, their report bolstered the arguments of the doves in Washington, weakened the President and Israel’s positions, and may have bought Iran an extra two years to work on developing thermonuclear weapons. Nicely done. I know they get a lot of things right that we never hear about, but you’d think they’d find a way to get some of their successes out there. Because right now, they haven’t looked good in a long time.
Iran pointed out the obvious this week: they could inflict heavy casualties on the US 5th Fleet if attacked, either by the US or Israel. This is your usual posturing, and simply serves to remind the US that even if no sanctions can be passed, a military option against Iran isn’t a politically viable one (what happens in the next two elections to the party that was responsible for instigating the worst Naval loss since Pearl Harbor?). Essentially, Iran is rubbing our noses in our own self imposed impotence. The second, underlying intent of this is to get the US to lean even more heavily on Israel to forgo attacking Iran, since we would end up bearing the brunt of their retaliation.
http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/iran-says-may-hit-western-warships-if-attacked-19534.html
Pakistan
Here’s another sobering look at why Islamic terrorism won’t be going away anytime soon. Basically, even the state funded schools in Pakistan (not just the Madrassas) are a junior jihadist breeding ground.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/16/AR2010011602660.html
This is disturbing, because it indicates the situation in Pakistan is not likely to improve anytime soon, and will remain a haven for terrorist organizations in the foreseeable future. Even worse is the danger that this creates with India. As long as these schools are whipping kids into paranoid frenzies about outsiders trying to destroy Islam, India will be the most convenient target for their delusions. Which brings us to…
India
This week Indian Prime Minister Singh met with SecDef Gates. Among the topics were India’s frustrations with China over China’s repeated hacking attempts on Indian government networks.
Gates also reminded a press meeting that terrorists are trying to provoke a war between Pakistan and India, and that after the Mumbai attacks India may be out of patience.
Given that India is the only regional counterweight to Al-Qaeda and China, wouldn’t it seem prudent to try harder to bring them into our sphere, even if it is at the expense of Pakistan? Frankly, it’s pretty obvious who we want to win that fight.
Israel
Israel is quietly pushing for sanctions, particularly with Germany. Germany has strong economic ties with Iran, and actually has the ability to hurt them financially (at least in the short term until new rat lines are established).
Israel’s being quiet about things at the moment. It is like the old movies though: get worried when it gets TOO quiet. Israel is still pressing people for sanctions, so an attack isn’t imminent. If it goes 2-3 weeks without the Israelis making any attempts to resolve the situation, watch out. It probably means that they’re getting all their political and military ducks in a row before the do whatever it is they’re going to do.
On a side note, Israel is trying to mend ties with Turkey. Diplomatic relations have been declining for a while, highlighted by a particularly nasty slight delivered to the Turkish ambassador to Israel about 3 weeks ago.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-israel-qa19-2010jan19,0,2032883.story?track=rss
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Weekly Intel Update (12 JAN 2010)
It’s been a relatively quiet week…but only seemingly. There’s a lot bubbling beneath the surface.
Terrorism
Yemen looks to be an emerging hot spot. More and more of the country is completely lawless, and the government in Sanaa grows weaker and weaker as oil revenues dry up. As a result, no more detainees will be repatriated to Yemen in the foreseeable future.
The more unsettling news is that most of the evidence against a detainee at Gitmo, who is now going to get a trial in the U.S., is being thrown out.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100108/ap_on_go_ot/us_guantanamo_detainee
This is a very dangerous precedent. It probably means we won’t get convictions against most of the detainees being moved to Illinois. Keep in mind, al Qaeda’s own version of SERE school teaches them to lie about their treatment, or to exaggerate any grievance to play to Muslim sympathies.
So, what if the Marines who capture a bad guy don’t read him his rights? Properly tag and bag the evidence? Get information without the presence of a lawyer? Use harsh language in front of the detainee?
Score one for the terrorists. However, keep in mind that releasing a bunch of hardened al Qaeda terrorists on the basis of legal technicalities would be a nightmare for the Obama administration. Doing a catch and release with KSM could easily cost him the 2012 election, along with basically any congressman (or woman) not from Massachusetts or the San Francisco Bay area who supported the closure of Gitmo and the use of civilian trials. Even when using a poll deliberately design to skew the results, it still indicates a clear majority of Americans want these guys locked away at Gitmo indefinitely (kind of like how child molesters can be held past the end of their sentences if they are still deemed a threat).
On a lightly lighter note, many of the inmates don’t want to leave Gitmo for Illinois:
“But the final irony is that many of the detainees may not even want to be transferred to Thomson and could conceivably even raise their own legal roadblocks to allow them to stay at Gitmo.
Falkoff notes that many of his clients, while they clearly want to go home, are at least being held under Geneva Convention conditions in Guantánamo. At Thomson, he notes, the plans call for them to be thrown into the equivalent of a "supermax" security prison under near-lockdown conditions.”
Afghanistan
Shortly after last week’s intel update, Maj Gen Flynn, NATO’s top intelligence official, described our intelligence efforts in Afghanistan as “only marginally relevant”. The core of this assessment is that we are focusing on the enemy and completely ignoring the human terrain. This is a classic blunder in COIN operations, and usually is fatal if not corrected. The populace is the lynchpin of any successful COIN strategy. Ignore it, and you lose.
Another black eye for the intel community. This comment is the most damning thing I have seen coming from a high level member of the military about his own people.
Rumor has it that Gen McChrystal never understood his predecessor’s move to secure Helmand, and never really supported it. The term “sideshow” has been bandied about.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124986154654218153.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
One way or another, this is going to wrap up eventually.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/military/2010-01-11-Helmand-Taliban_N.htm
One unnamed source described what is coming in the city of Marjah as “The Fallujah of Afghanistan”.
Ummm…is that a good thing? My fearless prediction is that most of the Taliban will manage to slip away ahead of time, and turn the entire episode into a PR victory.
Israel
This Saturday the Administration upped the ante with Israel in it disagreement with them over the issue of settlements, Iran, and the root causes of turmoil in the middle east:
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0110/Israel-shrugs-off-Mitchell-s-loan-threat
Essentially, George Mitchell threatened to cut of Israel’s loan guarantees unless it stops building in the West Bank. I goes along with the Administration’s perspective that the root cause of most middle eastern tensions are due to the Palestinian issue. They believe if it is resolved, then things will fall into place afterwards as part of a domino effect. Israel holds most of the trump cards in the negotiations, and the Palestinians don’t have much to offer, so the Administration believes that if something is going to happen, Israel will have to initiate it.
From the Israeli perspective, the Palestinean demands are a no-go, particularly the right of return (which most Israelis believe would be national suicide at best, and a Holocaustian massacre at worst.) The Palestineans haven’t budged on this issue in 20 years, so it’s unlikely to happen now, especially with the US apparently leaning on Israel diplomatically.
What Israel chooses to do with this is a matter of conjecture, but from their perspective it seems like bullying. It seems logical that they are preparing themselves to live in a world without any sort of U.S. support, if the worst should come.
On a weirder note, a former Israeli general says that Iran won’t be a nuclear threat for another 7 years or so.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,582696,00.html
This is probably a best case scenario that BG Uzi Eilam is looking at. It also probably assumes that Iran will take the longer, harder road to produce modern, more efficient types of warheads. Neither is necessarily true. If Iran is willing to cut all sort of corners (such as warhead type, and unconventional delivery methods), the traditional Israeli estimate of “possible in a year” remains true.
Iran
An Iranian nuclear physicist was killed by a vehicle borne bomb yesterday.
What makes this interesting is both that he’s a nuclear physicist, but also that he has been a vocal critic of the Iranian regime. According to some reports, he was an academic primarily, and has had no involvement in the Iranian nuclear program. Even more interesting is that there have been a number of airplane crashes in the past that have killed senior Iranian military personnel, scientists, and even foreign advisors. The rumor has long been that Israel has had a hand in these (one of which set back their nuclear program by over a year), but the truth is elusive (and probably highly classified).
I put forth the suggestion that the Iranian government did this to Dr. Mohammadi because they were worried (or believed) he was going to defect and reveal information extremely damaging to their nuclear program. If you remember from a few weeks ago I wrote about a scientist and a General who both apparently defected. By killing him this way it lets them try to shift attention to the US and Israel, and to continue to use these two nations to act as a target for domestic disquiet. No one can argue that both history, and motive suggest either of these two nations could be responsible. It gets rid of a highly visible supporter of Moussavi at an institution which has been fomenting revolution against the regime.
Iran will soon be trying both the Americans and French woman they have accused of spying within the next few weeks. We will just have to see in what manner they try to turn this to their advantage, or what they want as a bargaining chip.
Admiral Mullen basically ruled out the US using military fore against the Iranian nuclear program. Not that Israel held out much hope anyway that we would help them with the problem.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N0575255.htm
China is digging in it’s heels, and sanctions in the first two months of 2010 are very unlikely.
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20100105/tap-oukwd-uk-iran-nuclear-china-03b3b4c.html
General Petraeus says we have a plan for Iran’s nukes. Of course we do. We have a plan for everything. More likely than not, we have a CONPLAN stashed on a shelf somewhere that details what we plan on doing in case Mexico invades Singapore. Based on what we see today, it is a plan that is essentially a containment policy much like the one we have with North Korea. And we all can see that North Korea doesn’t have nuclear weapons now, as well as their movement towards liberal democracy and a greater respect for human rights. I don’t think “containment” is going to hold much water with the Israelis.
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